Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Hartford 38%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 53% · ✗ 3 goals
The Verdict
All three stay near the published picture: a tight match with Hartford's home record against Rhode Island's greater attacking output, probabilities clustered around 38/29/34.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo even attacks with soft defences point to a close, moderately scoring game
Both teams score in 52% of matches for each side, with clean sheets under a third (31% and 28%) - neither defence shuts the door. Rhode Island have failed to score only 24% of the time.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMid-table neighbours with little pressure should make an open game
Hartford sit 14th on 40 points, Rhode Island 11th on 42, from 29 games each - two points apart. Rhode Island's six-day turnaround versus Hartford's seven is negligible; neither is on a demanding fixture load.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 2.5 line may be a touch high for these sides' history
Both sides sit at 45% and 41% over 2.5 this season, yet the published 47% over rate assumes more than their recent low-scoring meetings support.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Hartford Athletic are slight favourites at 38%, with Rhode Island on 33% and the draw on 29%. Hartford Athletic are 14th and Rhode Island 11th in the USL Championship. In their last five league games, Hartford Athletic won none and Rhode Island three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Hartford Athletic win or draw
- 66%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Rhode Island win or draw
- 62%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Hartford Athletic and 1.2 from Rhode Island. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (10%), 2–1 (8%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% | 29% | 34% | Stats preview | #822 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Hartford Athletic: last 6
LDLDDW · 9 scored, 9 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Brooklyn | 2–3 | L |
| 14 Oct | vs Charleston Battery | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1–2 | L |
| 25 Sep | vs Louisville City | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Las Vegas Lights | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Sep | vs Sporting JAX | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: LDDWW
Rhode Island: last 6
DWLWWL · 6 scored, 5 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Oct | vs Loudoun United | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Detroit City | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Brooklyn | 3–1 | W |
| 30 Sep | vs Indy Eleven | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Charleston Battery | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LWLWL
Season stats
| Hartford Athletic | Rhode Island | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.14 | Goals scored per game | 1.41 |
| 1.10 | Goals conceded per game | 1.07 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.53 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game away | 1.29 |
| 45% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 41% |
| 52% | Both teams scored | 52% |
| 31% | Clean sheets | 28% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 24% |
League matches only, 29 games each.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | +3 | 45 | WDWLL |
| 11 | San Antonio | 30 | +2 | 45 | WWDLD |
| 12 | FC Tulsa | 30 | +3 | 43 | LLDDW |
| 13 | Hartford Athletic | 30 | +2 | 43 | WLDLD |
| 14 | Rhode Island | 30 | +9 | 42 | LDWLW |
| 15 | Phoenix Rising | 30 | -1 | 40 | DWWLL |
| 16 | Orange County SC | 30 | -10 | 39 | LLLLW |
| 17 | Oakland Roots | 30 | -1 | 38 | LWDDW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Hartford Athletic won 1, Rhode Island 2, 3 draws; 1.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2026 | Rhode Island | 1–0 | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Hartford Athletic | 0–0 | Rhode Island | USL League One Cup |
| 1 Apr 2026 | Rhode Island | 2–0 | Hartford Athletic | US Open Cup |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Hartford Athletic | 3–0 | Rhode Island | USL Championship |
| 26 Jul 2025 | Rhode Island | 2–2 | Hartford Athletic | USL League One Cup |
| 19 Jul 2025 | Rhode Island | 0–0 | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
Match context
- Rest days
- Hartford Athletic 7Rhode Island 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Hartford Athletic 2 · Rhode Island 2
- Referee
- A. Ndiaye
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
