Leganés vs Mallorca prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Mallorca to win: 43%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 59% · bookies 59% · ✓ 2 goals
The Verdict
The three readings converge on Mallorca being the stronger side, supported by their league position and recent form. Leganés' defensive frailties at home are a key concern, while the market consensus remains robust.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Mallorca's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersLeganés' high goals conceded rate at home clashes with Mallorca's defensive solidity on the road.
Leganés concedes 1.50 goals per game at home, while Mallorca concedes only 0.50 goals per game away. Leganés has failed to score in 60% of its home matches.
Mallorca: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMallorca enters the fixture in a significantly stronger position compared to Leganés.
Mallorca sits 6th with 18 points from 10 games, whereas Leganés is 17th with 11 points from 10 games. Both sides have had 7 days rest since their last match.
Mallorca: strongly underrated
Fewer goalsHigh The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market appears to have correctly identified Mallorca as the superior side for this encounter.
In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Mallorca has won 3 times. Leganés has struggled in recent form, losing 4 of its last 6 fixtures.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Mallorca are slight favourites at 43%, with Leganés on 26% and the draw on 31%. Leganés are 17th and Mallorca 7th in Segunda División. In their last five league games, Leganés won one and Mallorca two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Leganés win or draw
- 57%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 69%
- Mallorca win or draw
- 74%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 67%
- 3+ goals
- 41%
- 4+ goals
- 20%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 46%
- No
- 54%
We expect about 1.0 goals from Leganés and 1.3 from Mallorca. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (10%), 1–0 (10%), 0–2 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Leganés: last 6
LLLLWL · 3 scored, 14 conceded
| 16 Oct | vs Cordoba | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Almeria | 0–3 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Cadiz | 0–4 | L |
| 28 Sep | vs Castellón | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Granada CF | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Tenerife | 0–2 | L |
Last 4 at home: LLWW
Mallorca: last 6
DWDLWW · 7 scored, 3 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Eibar | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Las Palmas | 3–1 | W |
| 4 Oct | at Girona | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Almeria | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Real Sociedad II | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Sabadell | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: DDWDL
Season stats
| Leganés | Mallorca | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | Goals scored per game | 1.20 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 0.50 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 0.33 | Scored per game away | 0.40 |
| 30% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 20% |
| 20% | Both teams scored | 20% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 60% |
| 60% | Failed to score | 40% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Eibar | 11 | +7 | 22 | LDLWW |
| 4 | Girona | 11 | +12 | 21 | WWDDW |
| 5 | Granada CF | 11 | +4 | 20 | WWWWL |
| 6 | Mallorca | 11 | +7 | 19 | DDWDL |
| 7 | Sporting Gijon | 10 | +2 | 19 | WWWLW |
| 8 | Oviedo | 11 | +3 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 9 | Burgos | 10 | +3 | 17 | WLLWW |
| … | |||||
| 14 | Las Palmas | 11 | -5 | 14 | WLLDL |
| 15 | Valladolid | 11 | +0 | 12 | LLWDW |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 11 | -5 | 12 | LDWLD |
| 17 | Leganés | 11 | -9 | 12 | DLLLL |
| 18 | FC Andorra | 10 | -4 | 10 | LWDWL |
| 19 | Real Sociedad II | 11 | -8 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 20 | Cadiz | 10 | -2 | 7 | LLWDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Leganés won 1, Mallorca 3, 2 draws; 1.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2025 | Mallorca | 0–0 | Leganés | La Liga |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Leganés | 0–1 | Mallorca | La Liga |
| 1 Apr 2021 | Mallorca | 1–0 | Leganés | Segunda División |
| 12 Dec 2020 | Leganés | 0–1 | Mallorca | Segunda División |
| 19 Jun 2020 | Mallorca | 1–1 | Leganés | La Liga |
| 26 Oct 2019 | Leganés | 1–0 | Mallorca | La Liga |
Match context
- Rest days
- Leganés 7Mallorca 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Leganés 2 · Mallorca 2
- Referee
- Olatz Rivera Olmedo
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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