Albacete vs Eldense prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Albacete 38%)
Goals call3+ goals 53% · bookies 53% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
The three analyses converge on Eldense being the superior side, supported by their better league position and defensive stability. Albacete's poor home form and defensive record make a home win unlikely, while the probability of over 2.5 goals remains at 50%.
What our AI analysts say
All three think Eldense's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersEldense's more balanced attack and defence give them the edge over a struggling Albacete.
Eldense is more stable, scoring 1.30 goals per game while conceding 1.30 goals per game.
Eldense: strongly underrated
Fewer goalsHigh The Dressing Room
the table and pressureEldense's higher league standing and recent form suggest a more stable performance.
Eldense sits 11th with 14 points from 10 games, while Albacete is 22nd with only 1 point from 10 games. Eldense has a slight rest advantage with 6 days compared to Albacete's 7 days.
Eldense: strongly underrated
Fewer goalsHigh The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market appears to correctly price Eldense as the favourite based on their recent form.
Eldense has won 3 of the last 6 head-to-head encounters. Albacete's home form is poor, having conceded 8 goals in their last 4 matches, suggesting their 26% chance of victory is inflated.
Eldense: strongly underrated
Fewer goalsHigh Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Albacete are slight favourites at 38%, with Eldense on 34% and the draw on 28%. Albacete are 22nd and Eldense 12th in Segunda División. In their last five league games, Albacete won none and Eldense three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Albacete win or draw
- 66%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Eldense win or draw
- 62%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 53%
- 4+ goals
- 31%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Albacete and 1.4 from Eldense. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26% | 25% | 49% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1126 | |
| 2 | 40% | 28% | 32% | Prices moved | #1316 | |
| 3 | 38% | 28% | 34% | Prices moved | #1413 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Albacete: last 6
LLLLLD · 4 scored, 15 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Sporting Gijon | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Oct | at Valladolid | 0–5 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Eibar | 1–3 | L |
| 25 Sep | at Girona | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs Cordoba | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Granada CF | 1–1 | D |
Last 4 at home: LLLL
Eldense: last 6
WWWLLW · 11 scored, 7 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Valladolid | 3–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Cordoba | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Oct | vs Oviedo | 4–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Burgos | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Eibar | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Sporting Gijon | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WLWLL
Season stats
| Albacete | Eldense | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | Goals scored per game | 1.30 |
| 2.20 | Goals conceded per game | 1.30 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game at home | 1.80 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game away | 0.80 |
| 60% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 40% | Failed to score | 40% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Burgos | 10 | +3 | 17 | WLLWW |
| 10 | Sabadell | 11 | +2 | 17 | DLWDD |
| 11 | Cordoba | 11 | -3 | 15 | WWLWL |
| 12 | Eldense | 11 | -2 | 14 | LWWWL |
| 13 | Tenerife | 11 | -2 | 14 | DDDLD |
| 14 | Las Palmas | 11 | -5 | 14 | WLLDL |
| 15 | Valladolid | 11 | +0 | 12 | LLWDW |
| … | |||||
| 19 | FC Andorra | 10 | -4 | 10 | LWDWL |
| 20 | Real Sociedad II | 11 | -8 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 11 | -15 | 5 | LLLDW |
| 22 | Albacete | 11 | -14 | 4 | WLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Albacete won 2, Eldense 3, 1 draw; 2.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | Albacete | 1–0 | Eldense | Friendlies Clubs |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Albacete | 0–1 | Eldense | Segunda División |
| 16 Nov 2024 | Eldense | 2–0 | Albacete | Segunda División |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Eldense | 0–1 | Albacete | Segunda División |
| 19 Dec 2023 | Albacete | 1–1 | Eldense | Segunda División |
| 29 Jul 2023 | Albacete | 2–3 | Eldense | Friendlies Clubs |
Match context
- Rest days
- Albacete 7Eldense 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Albacete 2 · Eldense 1
- Referee
- Daniel Palencia Caballero
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
