Almería vs Real Oviedo prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Almería to win: 57%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 52% · bookies 52% · ✓ 4 goals
The Verdict
The sceptic's head-to-head note is the main counterweight, but the leaders' six-match run and 2.60 home goals per game carry it.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Almería's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersAlmería's home scoring rate should drive the game
Almería keep clean sheets 50% of the time, so a controlled home win with goals looks the natural read.
Almería: clearly underrated
Med The Dressing Room
the table and pressureLeaders at home against a mid-table visitor
Oviedo are 9th on 17 points, three back, with a mixed away record of W2 L3 in their last five. Both had 7 and 6 days rest, so freshness is even and the leaders' momentum tells.
Almería: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHead-to-head history argues Oviedo are underpriced
The market makes Almería 59% favourites, but Oviedo have won 3 of the last 6 meetings with 2 draws, including a 1-2 win at Almería in 2025, at 2.8 goals per game. Oviedo also score 1.60 per game away, more than their 1.30 overall. I nudge the away side up and keep the total near the line.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Almería are favourites at 57%, with Real Oviedo on 18% and the draw on 25%. Almería are 1st and Real Oviedo 8th in Segunda División. In their last five league games, Almería won five and Real Oviedo three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Almería win or draw
- 82%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Real Oviedo win or draw
- 43%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 52%
- 4+ goals
- 29%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 51%
- No
- 49%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Almería and 0.9 from Real Oviedo. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Almería: last 6
WWWWWW · 14 scored, 3 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Real Sociedad II | 4–2 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Leganes | 3–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Burgos | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Mallorca | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Celta de Vigo II | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Cordoba | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWWW
Real Oviedo: last 6
WWLWLW · 12 scored, 9 conceded
| 18 Oct | at AD Ceuta FC | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Oct | vs Eibar | 3–1 | W |
| 2 Oct | at Eldense | 1–4 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Sporting Gijon | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Sabadell | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Valladolid | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WLLWW
Season stats
| Almería | Real Oviedo | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.30 |
| 0.70 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 2.60 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game away | 1.60 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 30% | Both teams scored | 40% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 30% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almería | 11 | +13 | 25 | DWWWW |
| 2 | Castellón | 10 | +14 | 23 | WLDWW |
| 3 | Eibar | 11 | +7 | 22 | LDLWW |
| 4 | Girona | 11 | +12 | 21 | WWDDW |
| 5 | Granada CF | 11 | +4 | 20 | WWWWL |
| 6 | Mallorca | 11 | +7 | 19 | DDWDL |
| 7 | Sporting Gijon | 10 | +2 | 19 | WWWLW |
| 8 | Real Oviedo | 11 | +3 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 9 | Burgos | 10 | +3 | 17 | WLLWW |
| 10 | Sabadell | 11 | +2 | 17 | DLWDD |
| 11 | Cordoba | 11 | -3 | 15 | WWLWL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Almería won 1, Real Oviedo 3, 2 draws; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jun 2025 | Real Oviedo | 1–1 | Almería | Segunda División |
| 7 Jun 2025 | Almería | 1–2 | Real Oviedo | Segunda División |
| 1 Feb 2025 | Almería | 1–1 | Real Oviedo | Segunda División |
| 13 Oct 2024 | Real Oviedo | 3–2 | Almería | Segunda División |
| 29 Jan 2022 | Real Oviedo | 2–0 | Almería | Segunda División |
| 20 Aug 2021 | Almería | 2–1 | Real Oviedo | Segunda División |
Match context
- Rest days
- Almería 7Real Oviedo 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Almería 2 · Real Oviedo 2
- Referee
- German Cid Camacho
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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