Castellón vs Sporting Gijón prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Castellón to win: 64%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 55% · bookies 55%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings point the same way: Castellón's miserly defence (4 conceded in 10) against a Sporting side that has scored once a game on the road. The published 58-26-16 split and a low 37% for over 2.5 goals look well-judged, with home win and Under the natural conclusions.
What our AI analysts say
All three think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersCastellón's defence is the decisive edge in this fixture.
Castellón concede just 0.40 per game with 60% clean sheets, and at home have shipped one goal in four matches. Sporting fail to score in 40% of matches and average only 1.10 scored per game, so the 0.7 expected goals for the visitors fits.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo in-form top-five sides, but Castellón's cushion eases the pressure.
Sporting's W6 D1 L3 run includes defeats at Oviedo and Eldense, so the home side's steadier schedule tilts a tight contest.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongSporting's 4-1 in this fixture argues the 58% home number is too high.
The last meeting ended 4-1 to Sporting and H2H averages 3.7 goals per game, well above the 37% over-2.5 figure. Sporting also sit top of the away-scoring split at 1.25 per game, so 16% looks shy.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Castellón are clear favourites at 64%, with Sporting Gijón on 15% and the draw on 21%. Castellón are 2nd and Sporting Gijón 7th in Segunda División. In their last five league games, Castellón won three and Sporting Gijón four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Castellón win or draw
- 85%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- Sporting Gijón win or draw
- 36%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 2.0 goals from Castellón and 0.9 from Sporting Gijón. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (10%), 3–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% | 26% | 16% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1161 | |
| 2 | 64% | 21% | 15% | Prices moved | #1289 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Castellón: last 6
WLDWWW · 13 scored, 3 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Las Palmas | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at FC Andorra | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs AD Ceuta FC | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Sep | at Leganes | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Tenerife | 5–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Girona | 2–1 | W |
Last 4 at home: DWWD
Sporting Gijón: last 6
WWWLWL · 9 scored, 7 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Albacete | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Cadiz | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs Celta de Vigo II | 3–2 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Oviedo | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at FC Andorra | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Eldense | 0–1 | L |
Last 4 away: WLWW
Season stats
| Castellón | Sporting Gijón | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | Goals scored per game | 1.10 |
| 0.40 | Goals conceded per game | 0.90 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 40% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 30% |
| 30% | Both teams scored | 30% |
| 60% | Clean sheets | 40% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 40% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 11 | +13 | 25 | DWWWW |
| 2 | Castellón | 10 | +14 | 23 | WLDWW |
| 3 | Eibar | 11 | +7 | 22 | LDLWW |
| 4 | Girona | 11 | +12 | 21 | WWDDW |
| 5 | Granada CF | 11 | +4 | 20 | WWWWL |
| 6 | Mallorca | 11 | +7 | 19 | DDWDL |
| 7 | Sporting Gijón | 10 | +2 | 19 | WWWLW |
| 8 | Oviedo | 11 | +3 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 9 | Burgos | 10 | +3 | 17 | WLLWW |
| 10 | Sabadell | 11 | +2 | 17 | DLWDD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Castellón won 3, Sporting Gijón 3, 0 draws; 3.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2026 | Sporting Gijón | 4–1 | Castellón | Segunda División |
| 5 Oct 2025 | Castellón | 3–1 | Sporting Gijón | Segunda División |
| 5 May 2025 | Castellón | 4–3 | Sporting Gijón | Segunda División |
| 14 Oct 2024 | Sporting Gijón | 2–1 | Castellón | Segunda División |
| 24 Jan 2021 | Castellón | 2–0 | Sporting Gijón | Segunda División |
| 2 Nov 2020 | Sporting Gijón | 1–0 | Castellón | Segunda División |
Match context
- Travel for Sporting Gijón
- 610 km
- Rest days
- Castellón 7Sporting Gijón 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Castellón 1 · Sporting Gijón 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 20°C · wind 3 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Gorka Etayo Herrera
- Goals in this league
- Segunda División average: 2.67 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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