Granada vs Real Valladolid prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Granada to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 55% · bookies 55% · ✗ 3 goals
The Verdict
All three readings lean Granada: the coach likes their home scoring against Valladolid's 0.80 away goals per game, the dressing room notes a five-point gap and equal rest, and the sceptic sees the 42% as fair or slightly light. Draw risk is real given Valladolid's away draws, so a narrow home win with goals is the consensus picture.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 2 think Granada's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersGranada's home scoring against Valladolid's soft away attack points to a home edge.
Granada score 1.75 per game at home and have kept clean sheets in 40% of matches, while Valladolid manage only 0.80 per game away despite 2.20 at home.
Granada: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureGranada's five-point cushion and home form make them worthy favourites.
Granada sit 7th on 17 points from 10 games, five clear of 13th-placed Valladolid on 12. The home side have won three of their last six and taken seven points from four home games, while Valladolid's away run reads D D D L L.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Granada are slight favourites at 42%, with Real Valladolid on 29% and the draw on 29%. Granada are 7th and Real Valladolid 13th in Segunda División. In their last five league games, Granada won three and Real Valladolid two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Granada win or draw
- 71%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Real Valladolid win or draw
- 58%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 70%
- 3+ goals
- 45%
- 4+ goals
- 23%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Granada and 1.1 from Real Valladolid. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (12%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 29% | 29% | Stats preview | #594 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Granada: last 6
WWWLLD · 11 scored, 9 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Cadiz | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Oct | at Burgos | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Oct | at Real Sociedad II | 3–2 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs FC Andorra | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Leganes | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Albacete | 1–1 | D |
Last 4 at home: WLDW
Real Valladolid: last 6
LWDWDL · 13 scored, 10 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Eldense | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Oct | vs Albacete | 5–0 | W |
| 4 Oct | at Las Palmas | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Cordoba | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at AD Ceuta FC | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Oviedo | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 away: DDDLL
Season stats
| Granada | Real Valladolid | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 1.30 | Goals conceded per game | 1.40 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game at home | 2.20 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 0.80 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 40% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 30% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Castellón | 10 | +14 | 23 | WLDWW |
| 3 | Eibar | 11 | +7 | 22 | LDLWW |
| 4 | Girona | 11 | +12 | 21 | WWDDW |
| 5 | Granada | 11 | +4 | 20 | WWWWL |
| 6 | Mallorca | 11 | +7 | 19 | DDWDL |
| 7 | Sporting Gijon | 10 | +2 | 19 | WWWLW |
| 8 | Oviedo | 11 | +3 | 18 | DWWLW |
| … | |||||
| 12 | Eldense | 10 | +0 | 14 | WWWLL |
| 13 | Tenerife | 11 | -2 | 14 | DDDLD |
| 14 | Las Palmas | 11 | -5 | 14 | WLLDL |
| 15 | Real Valladolid | 11 | +0 | 12 | LLWDW |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 11 | -5 | 12 | LDWLD |
| 17 | Leganes | 11 | -9 | 12 | DLLLL |
| 18 | FC Andorra | 10 | -4 | 10 | LWDWL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Granada won 3, Real Valladolid 3, 0 draws; 3.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Granada | 5–1 | Real Valladolid | Segunda División |
| 3 Nov 2025 | Real Valladolid | 2–1 | Granada | Segunda División |
| 11 Apr 2021 | Real Valladolid | 1–2 | Granada | La Liga |
| 22 Nov 2020 | Granada | 1–3 | Real Valladolid | La Liga |
| 28 Aug 2020 | Granada | 0–3 | Real Valladolid | Friendlies Clubs |
| 15 Feb 2020 | Granada | 2–1 | Real Valladolid | La Liga |
Match context
- Rest days
- Granada 5Real Valladolid 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Granada 2 · Real Valladolid 2
- Referee
- Marta Huerta de Aza
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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