Cádiz vs Ceuta prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Cádiz to win: 46%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 50% · bookies 50% · ✗ 4 goals
The Verdict
The Coach leans on Cádiz's home scoring ability, while the Sceptic points to Ceuta's historical superiority. The Dressing Room suggests a tight, high-stakes affair, leading to a prediction of a competitive match with a high probability of goals.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Coach thinks Cádiz are underrated; The Sceptic thinks Ceuta are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersCádiz scores 1.00 per game at home, while Ceuta concedes 2.20 per game overall. Ceuta's away scoring rate is low at 0.75 per game, suggesting a potential struggle against a solid home defense.
Cádiz: strongly underrated
More goalsHigh The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe tight league standings suggest a high-pressure encounter where every point is vital for both sides.
Cádiz sits in 20th place with 7 points from 10 games, while Ceuta is 21st with 5 points from 10 games. Both teams have 7 days rest ahead of this fixture.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongCeuta's historical dominance in this fixture suggests they are the more likely winners despite recent form.
In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Ceuta won 3 matches. Ceuta's away games have a 70% rate of both teams scoring, compared to Cádiz's 50% home rate.
Ceuta: strongly underrated
More goalsHigh Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Cádiz are favourites at 46%, with Ceuta on 26% and the draw on 28%. Cádiz are 20th and Ceuta 21st in Segunda División. In their last five league games, Cádiz won one and Ceuta one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Cádiz win or draw
- 74%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Ceuta win or draw
- 54%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 49%
- 4+ goals
- 27%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Cádiz and 1.1 from Ceuta. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 0–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60% | 22% | 18% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1127 | |
| 2 | 50% | 27% | 22% | Prices moved | #1341 | |
| 3 | 46% | 28% | 26% | Prices moved | #1414 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Cádiz: last 6
LLWDLL · 6 scored, 7 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Granada CF | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Sporting Gijon | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Leganes | 4–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Tenerife | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Girona | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Las Palmas | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: LWLLD
Ceuta: last 6
LLDWDL · 8 scored, 10 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Oviedo | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Sabadell | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Oct | at Castellón | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Real Sociedad II | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Valladolid | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Sep | at Burgos | 1–3 | L |
Last 4 away: DLLL
Season stats
| Cádiz | Ceuta | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.10 | Goals scored per game | 0.90 |
| 1.30 | Goals conceded per game | 2.20 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 40% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 70% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 40% | Failed to score | 30% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Valladolid | 11 | +0 | 12 | LLWDW |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 11 | -5 | 12 | LDWLD |
| 17 | Leganes | 11 | -9 | 12 | DLLLL |
| 18 | Cádiz | 11 | +0 | 10 | WLLWD |
| 19 | FC Andorra | 10 | -4 | 10 | LWDWL |
| 20 | Real Sociedad II | 11 | -8 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 21 | Ceuta | 11 | -15 | 5 | LLLDW |
| 22 | Albacete | 11 | -14 | 4 | WLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Cádiz won 0, Ceuta 3, 1 draw; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | Cádiz | 1–3 | Ceuta | Friendlies Clubs |
| 28 Mar 2026 | Ceuta | 2–1 | Cádiz | Segunda División |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Cádiz | 0–0 | Ceuta | Segunda División |
| 2 Aug 2025 | Cádiz | 0–3 | Ceuta | Friendlies Clubs |
Match context
- Rest days
- Cádiz 7Ceuta 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Cádiz 2 · Ceuta 1
- Referee
- Andres Fuentes Molina
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
