FC Andorra vs Burgos prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Andorra to win: 46%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 54% · bookies 54% · ✗ 5 goals
The Verdict
All three readings land near the published 39/26/34, with the coach leaning slightly to Andorra at home and the sceptic nudging Burgos up on head-to-head form. The goals call splits the panel around the 48% over line, with the sceptic's low-scoring head-to-head history arguing for unders. Total goals 2+ at 74% is the safest statement anyone makes.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three think Burgos's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo sides with 1.30 goals per game point to a tight, low-margin contest
Andorra concede 1.70 per game to Burgos' 1.00, but both score 1.60-1.67 per game at their favoured ground. Both teams score in 50% of matches for each side, clean sheets are rare (20% vs 30%), so chances should flow both ways.
Burgos: strongly underrated
More goalsHigh The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBurgos arrive steadier and better placed, but Andorra's home wins give them a puncher's chance
Burgos sit 9th on 17 points from 10 games; Andorra are 19th on 10 points, three wins but six defeats. Both had 8 days' rest with one game in 14, so freshness is even. Andorra's last six is erratic: W-L-D-W-L-L.
Burgos: strongly underrated
High The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe published numbers may shade Burgos too low given the head-to-head record
Burgos have won 3 of the last 6 against Andorra, including 1-0 in 2026, with just 1.5 goals per game in that run. Burgos away read L-W-D-L with 3 scored and 4 conceded, yet the model gives them 34% - arguably 2-3 points light. Under 2.5 has a case.
Burgos: strongly underrated
High Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
FC Andorra are favourites at 46%, with Burgos on 25% and the draw on 29%. FC Andorra are 19th and Burgos 9th in Segunda División. In their last five league games, FC Andorra won two and Burgos three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- FC Andorra win or draw
- 75%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Burgos win or draw
- 54%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 46%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.5 goals from FC Andorra and 1.0 from Burgos. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (12%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (9%), 0–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% | 26% | 34% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1513 | |
| 2 | 46% | 29% | 25% | Prices moved | #1569 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
FC Andorra: last 6
LWDWLL · 6 scored, 10 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Girona | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Castellón | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Oct | at Sabadell | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Granada CF | 3–2 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Sporting Gijon | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Real Sociedad II | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: WLLLW
Burgos: last 6
WLLWWW · 8 scored, 5 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Sabadell | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Oct | vs Granada CF | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Almeria | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Eldense | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Las Palmas | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs AD Ceuta FC | 3–1 | W |
Last 4 away: LWDL
Season stats
| FC Andorra | Burgos | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30 | Goals scored per game | 1.30 |
| 1.70 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game at home | 1.67 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 30% |
| 40% | Failed to score | 30% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Eibar | 11 | +7 | 22 | LDLWW |
| 4 | Girona | 11 | +12 | 21 | WWDDW |
| 5 | Granada CF | 11 | +4 | 20 | WWWWL |
| 6 | Burgos | 11 | +4 | 20 | WWLLW |
| 7 | Mallorca | 11 | +7 | 19 | DDWDL |
| 8 | Sporting Gijon | 11 | -2 | 19 | LWWWL |
| 9 | Oviedo | 11 | +3 | 18 | DWWLW |
| … | |||||
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 11 | -5 | 12 | LDWLD |
| 17 | Leganes | 11 | -9 | 12 | DLLLL |
| 18 | Cadiz | 11 | +0 | 10 | WLLWD |
| 19 | FC Andorra | 11 | -5 | 10 | LLWDW |
| 20 | Real Sociedad II | 11 | -8 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 11 | -15 | 5 | LLLDW |
| 22 | Albacete | 11 | -14 | 4 | WLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: FC Andorra won 2, Burgos 3, 1 draw; 1.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May 2026 | Burgos | 1–0 | FC Andorra | Segunda División |
| 31 Aug 2025 | FC Andorra | 2–1 | Burgos | Segunda División |
| 18 May 2024 | FC Andorra | 1–0 | Burgos | Segunda División |
| 25 Nov 2023 | Burgos | 0–0 | FC Andorra | Segunda División |
| 15 Jan 2023 | Burgos | 2–1 | FC Andorra | Segunda División |
| 12 Oct 2022 | FC Andorra | 0–1 | Burgos | Segunda División |
Match context
- Travel for Burgos
- 310 km
- Rest days
- FC Andorra 8Burgos 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: FC Andorra 1 · Burgos 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 16°C · wind 4 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Miranda Bolano Daniel
- Goals in this league
- Segunda División average: 2.68 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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