VfL Bochum vs Mainz prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Mainz to win: 59%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 61% · bookies 61%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings point the same way: Mainz's four straight away wins and five wins in six head-to-heads justify their published 59%, with Bochum's two scored in five home games offering little counterweight. The only mild disagreement is on goals, where the sceptic shades the 61% over down slightly.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Mainz's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersMainz's away scoring should again be too much for a struggling Bochum defence
Expect the visitors to control the game and create the bulk of the chances.
Mainz: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFixture load and a poor home run leave Bochum up against it
Both sides had only two games in the last 14 days, so fatigue is not the story. The story is form: Bochum have four defeats and two draws in their last six, and just one home win in that stretch, while Mainz arrive with momentum including a 5-0 away win.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMainz's 59% looks fair, but the over line may be slightly generous
The published 59% for Mainz sits comfortably alongside five wins in the last six head-to-heads, including a 4-1 in Bochum in 2025. But Mainz's last two away wins were tight, 1-0 at Schalke among them, and Bochum's home games have been low-scoring with two scored and five conceded in five.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Mainz are favourites at 59%, with VfL Bochum on 19% and the draw on 22%. In their last five matches across all competitions, VfL Bochum won none and Mainz two. The prices point to about 3.2 goals.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- VfL Bochum win or draw
- 41%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Mainz win or draw
- 81%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 61%
- 4+ goals
- 39%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 1.1 goals from VfL Bochum and 2.1 from Mainz. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–2 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (10%), 0–2 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 1–3 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19% | 22% | 59% | Stats preview | #1586 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
VfL Bochum: last 6
DLLLDW · 5 scored, 8 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs VfL Wolfsburg 2. Bundesliga | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | at 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2. Bundesliga | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Arminia Bielefeld 2. Bundesliga | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Hannover 96 2. Bundesliga | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2. Bundesliga | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | at Dynamo Dresden 2. Bundesliga | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: DLDLL
Mainz: last 6
LWLWLW · 16 scored, 13 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Werder Bremen Bundesliga | 2–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | at FC Schalke 04 Bundesliga | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga | 3–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Borussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga | 4–3 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sep | at Hamburger SV Bundesliga | 5–0 | W |
Last 4 away: WWWW
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: VfL Bochum won 0, Mainz 5, 1 draw; 3.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2025 | VfL Bochum | 1–4 | Mainz | Bundesliga |
| 11 Jan 2025 | Mainz | 2–0 | VfL Bochum | Bundesliga |
| 16 Mar 2024 | Mainz | 2–0 | VfL Bochum | Bundesliga |
| 27 Oct 2023 | VfL Bochum | 2–2 | Mainz | Bundesliga |
| 28 Jan 2023 | Mainz | 5–2 | VfL Bochum | Bundesliga |
| 6 Aug 2022 | VfL Bochum | 1–2 | Mainz | Bundesliga |
Match context
- Travel for Mainz
- 182 km
- Rest days
- VfL Bochum 4Mainz 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: VfL Bochum 2 · Mainz 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 16°C · wind 17 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- U. Rösler
- VfL Bochum, since Oct 2026
- U. Fischer
- Mainz, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- DFB-Pokal average: 4.62 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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