Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Bayer Leverkusen to win: 85%, about 4 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 81% · bookies 81%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersLeverkusen's home scoring should overwhelm a leaky Nurnberg defence
Leverkusen have won all four recent home games, scoring 10 and conceding 1, and average 3.5 expected goals here against 0.9 for Nurnberg. Nurnberg have scored in five straight away games, so both teams score at 57% looks fair.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFixture load favours fresher Nurnberg, but the gulf remains
Even so, the hosts' four-match home winning run should tell.
Bayer Leverkusen: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe prices look broadly right, maybe a touch short on the hosts
Nurnberg's five-game away unbeaten run argues for slightly more than 5%. The 81% over 2.5 fits the 63% for 4+ goals and a 4.62 goals-per-match cup environment.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites at 85%, with 1. FC Nürnberg on 5% and the draw on 10%. In their last five matches across all competitions, Bayer Leverkusen won four and 1. FC Nürnberg two. The prices point to about 4.4 goals.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Bayer Leverkusen win or draw
- 95%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 90%
- 1. FC Nürnberg win or draw
- 15%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 93%
- 3+ goals
- 81%
- 4+ goals
- 63%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 3.5 goals from Bayer Leverkusen and 0.9 from 1. FC Nürnberg. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 3–0 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 3–1 (8%), 4–0 (8%), 2–0 (8%), 4–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 85% | 10% | 5% | Stats preview | #1732 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Bayer Leverkusen: last 6
LWWWWW · 14 scored, 7 conceded
| 25 Oct | at 1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Oct | at OFI UEFA Europa League | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs SC Freiburg Bundesliga | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | at Lech Poznan UEFA Europa League | 4–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga | 4–3 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs RB Leipzig Bundesliga | 2–0 | W |
Last 4 at home: WWWW
1. FC Nürnberg: last 6
LDDWWD · 10 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2. Bundesliga | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Oct | at Energie Cottbus 2. Bundesliga | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs VfL Wolfsburg 2. Bundesliga | 4–4 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Karlsruher SC 2. Bundesliga | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs Hannover 96 2. Bundesliga | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Holstein Kiel 2. Bundesliga | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 away: DWDDW
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen won 5, 1. FC Nürnberg 0, 1 draw; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Apr 2019 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2–0 | 1. FC Nürnberg | Bundesliga |
| 3 Dec 2018 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 1–1 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 20 Apr 2014 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 1–4 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 30 Nov 2013 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3–0 | 1. FC Nürnberg | Bundesliga |
| 4 May 2013 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 0–2 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 1 Dec 2012 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1–0 | 1. FC Nürnberg | Bundesliga |
Match context
- Travel for 1. FC Nürnberg
- 339 km
- Rest days
- Bayer Leverkusen 31. FC Nürnberg 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Bayer Leverkusen 4 · 1. FC Nürnberg 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 6 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- Carles Martínez
- Bayer Leverkusen, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- DFB-Pokal average: 4.62 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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