SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Freiburg to win: 66%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 70% · bookies 70%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The three readings converge on a strong home performance for SC Freiburg, supported by their excellent home form and historical advantage. While the goal count is expected to be high, the consistency of Wolfsburg's away form suggests a tight contest where Freiburg's attacking power is the key factor.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think VfL Wolfsburg's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make VfL Wolfsburg favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSC Freiburg's strong home scoring record suggests they have the attacking edge in this fixture.
Freiburg has scored 15 goals in their last 5 home matches, while Wolfsburg has conceded 11 goals in their last 5 away matches. The match average in this competition is 4.62 goals per game.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFreiburg's historical dominance in this fixture is supported by their recent form.
SC Freiburg has won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Wolfsburg.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market may be slightly overestimating Wolfsburg's ability to challenge the home side.
Wolfsburg's last 5 away results show a pattern of draws and losses (D, D, L, W, D). While the H2H average is 3.2 goals per game, Wolfsburg's expected goals are only 1.1.
VfL Wolfsburg: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
Takes 1–3 minutes: we search the news and read the sources. Keep this page open, it reloads when the analysis is ready. It is saved for everyone who opens this match.
Full analysis in progress
Starting…
Usually 1–3 minutes. Keep this page open.
The full analysis is ready. Loading it…
The full analysis could not be completed. Please try again later.
Too many requests right now. Please try again in a few minutes.
In short
SC Freiburg are clear favourites at 66%, with VfL Wolfsburg on 16% and the draw on 18%. In their last five matches across all competitions, SC Freiburg won two and VfL Wolfsburg two. The prices point to about 3.6 goals.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- SC Freiburg win or draw
- 84%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 82%
- VfL Wolfsburg win or draw
- 34%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 87%
- 3+ goals
- 70%
- 4+ goals
- 49%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 62%
- No
- 38%
We expect about 2.5 goals from SC Freiburg and 1.1 from VfL Wolfsburg. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–0 (8%), 3–1 (8%), 1–1 (8%), 3–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 66% | 18% | 16% | Stats preview | #1733 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
SC Freiburg: last 6
LLLWWD · 9 scored, 13 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Bayern München Bundesliga | 1–3 | L |
| 22 Oct | at Monaco UEFA Europa Conference League | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs FK Jablonec UEFA Europa Conference League | 3–2 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs FC Schalke 04 Bundesliga | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: LWWWW
VfL Wolfsburg: last 6
DWDWLD · 17 scored, 12 conceded
| 23 Oct | at VfL Bochum 2. Bundesliga | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs 1. FC Heidenheim 2. Bundesliga | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at 1. FC Nürnberg 2. Bundesliga | 4–4 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs SV Darmstadt 98 2. Bundesliga | 5–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at FC St. Pauli 2. Bundesliga | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Energie Cottbus 2. Bundesliga | 4–4 | D |
Last 5 away: DDLWD
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: SC Freiburg won 4, VfL Wolfsburg 1, 1 draw; 3.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | SC Freiburg | 1–1 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga |
| 20 Dec 2025 | VfL Wolfsburg | 3–4 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 26 Apr 2025 | VfL Wolfsburg | 0–1 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 13 Dec 2024 | SC Freiburg | 3–2 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga |
| 27 Apr 2024 | SC Freiburg | 1–2 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga |
| 9 Dec 2023 | VfL Wolfsburg | 0–1 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
Match context
- Rest days
- SC Freiburg 3VfL Wolfsburg 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: SC Freiburg 4 · VfL Wolfsburg 2
- Coaches
- J. Schuster
- SC Freiburg, since Oct 2026
- Tobias Strobl
- VfL Wolfsburg, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- DFB-Pokal average: 4.62 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
