Rot-Weiß Essen vs RB Leipzig prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
RB Leipzig to win: 84%, about 4 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 74% · bookies 74%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
A comfortable Leipzig win with goals looks the consensus reading.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Rot-Weiß Essen's chances are better than the bookmakers say. Neither makes Rot-Weiß Essen favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersLeipzig's firepower should overrun Essen despite their away wobble.
The numbers give Leipzig 3.1 expected goals to Essen's 0.8, and their last six include a 6-0 and a 4-0 win. Essen have kept two straight home clean sheets but face a far sharper attack. Both-teams-score at 50% says Essen may struggle to reply.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFixture load tilts this towards the visitors, but fatigue is real.
Leipzig have played four games in 14 days with only three days' rest, while Essen have had four days and just two games in a fortnight. Their league form is mixed, losing at Ingolstadt before beating Regensburg.
Rot-Weiß Essen: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongLeipzig's five straight away defeats make 84% look slightly rich.
Leipzig have lost their last five away games, conceding 19 and scoring only 4, including heavy defeats at Madrid and Munich. Essen beat St. Pauli 2-0 in this competition and have won both home games.
Rot-Weiß Essen: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
RB Leipzig are clear favourites at 84%, with Rot-Weiß Essen on 6% and the draw on 10%. In their last three matches across all competitions, Rot-Weiß Essen won two and RB Leipzig one. The prices point to about 3.9 goals.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Rot-Weiß Essen win or draw
- 16%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 90%
- RB Leipzig win or draw
- 94%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 90%
- 3+ goals
- 74%
- 4+ goals
- 54%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 0.8 goals from Rot-Weiß Essen and 3.1 from RB Leipzig. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–3 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 0–2 (10%), 0–4 (8%), 1–3 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6% | 10% | 84% | Stats preview | #1585 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Rot-Weiß Essen: last 3
WLW · 3 scored, 1 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs SSV Jahn Regensburg 3. Liga | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at FC Ingolstadt 04 3. Liga | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Aug | vs FC St. Pauli | 2–0 | W |
Last 2 at home: WW
RB Leipzig: last 6
WLLWWL · 13 scored, 12 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs SV Elversberg Bundesliga | 4–0 | W |
| 21 Oct | at Real Madrid UEFA Champions League | 1–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Bayern München Bundesliga | 1–6 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs PSV Eindhoven UEFA Champions League | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga | 6–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLLL
Head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Rot-Weiß Essen won 0, RB Leipzig 1, 0 draws; 5.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug 2024 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 1–4 | RB Leipzig | DFB Pokal |
Match context
- Travel for RB Leipzig
- 371 km
- Rest days
- Rot-Weiß Essen 4RB Leipzig 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Rot-Weiß Essen 2 · RB Leipzig 4
- Weather at kick-off
- 16°C · wind 19 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- M. Demichelis
- RB Leipzig, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- DFB-Pokal average: 4.62 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
