Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Borussia Dortmund to win: 71%, about 3 in 4
Goals call3+ goals 65% · bookies 65%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three cards land close to the published 71/17/12, with the sceptic nudging the draw up slightly given Bremen's habit of drawing with Dortmund. The over 2.5 line sits near the published 65%, supported by Dortmund's home output and Bremen's consistent scoring, though Dortmund's heavy fixture load gives some pause.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides score freely; goals on both sides look live
Bremen have scored in every one of their last six, while Dortmund's home run of W D W W W brought 11 scored and 4 conceded. The earlier meeting this season ended 2-2, and the numbers price both teams score at 54% with Dortmund's expected goals at 2.4 against Bremen's 0.9.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureDortmund's heavier schedule may temper the rout
Dortmund arrive with four games in 14 days, including a demanding Champions League trip to Bodo/Glimt that ended in defeat. Bremen have played only twice in the same fortnight, all league games, and arrive unbeaten in four (W D D W).
Borussia Dortmund: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHome price looks fair; draw slightly understated
Bremen are winless in six against Dortmund (3 draws) yet drew 2-2 there this season, and drew twice more in their last four. Dortmund have lost once in six. A 71/17/12 split looks about right, maybe a shade generous to Dortmund; I'd nudge the draw up a touch.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites at 71%, with Werder Bremen on 12% and the draw on 17%. In their last five matches across all competitions, Borussia Dortmund won two and Werder Bremen two. The prices point to about 3.3 goals.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Borussia Dortmund win or draw
- 88%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 83%
- Werder Bremen win or draw
- 29%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 84%
- 3+ goals
- 65%
- 4+ goals
- 43%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 2.4 goals from Borussia Dortmund and 0.9 from Werder Bremen. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 3–0 (8%), 1–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 71% | 17% | 12% | Stats preview | #1618 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Borussia Dortmund: last 6
WWDLDW · 6 scored, 4 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Oct | at Sabah FA UEFA Champions League | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Union Berlin Bundesliga | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Oct | at Bodo/Glimt UEFA Champions League | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Werder Bremen Bundesliga | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | at VfB Stuttgart Bundesliga | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WDWWW
Werder Bremen: last 6
WDDWDW · 14 scored, 10 conceded
| 24 Oct | at FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga | 3–2 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs SC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs FC Augsburg Bundesliga | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sep | at 1. FC Köln Bundesliga | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs RB Leipzig Bundesliga | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 away: WDDLW
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Borussia Dortmund won 3, Werder Bremen 0, 3 draws; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | Borussia Dortmund | 2–2 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 16 May 2026 | Werder Bremen | 0–2 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 13 Jan 2026 | Borussia Dortmund | 3–0 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Borussia Dortmund | 2–2 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Werder Bremen | 0–0 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 9 Mar 2024 | Werder Bremen | 1–2 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
Match context
- Travel for Werder Bremen
- 196 km
- Rest days
- Borussia Dortmund 3Werder Bremen 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Borussia Dortmund 4 · Werder Bremen 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 15°C · wind 22 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- N. Kovač
- Borussia Dortmund, since Oct 2026
- D. Thioune
- Werder Bremen, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- DFB-Pokal average: 4.62 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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