SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
VfB Stuttgart to win: 64%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 66% · bookies 66%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three cards land close to the published 16/19/64, agreeing the away side deserves favouritism given four straight head-to-head wins and a 0-2 result here this year. The sceptic's only real doubt is on goals: a 2.0 per game H2H history sits uneasily beside the 66% over 2.5. Slight lean under the total, clear Stuttgart lean overall.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersStuttgart's superior attack should settle a cup tie that stays controlled rather than wild
Both teams score in 60% of the underlying numbers, but Paderborn's home games split W L W L with just four scored and four conceded.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFixture load and fragile away form give Paderborn a fighting chance the league table alone would not
Stuttgart's away record of L W W L L, seven scored and eight conceded, suggests fatigue and travel of 327 km could level the workload gap.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe away win price looks fair, but over 2.5 goals may be priced slightly high
The 64% on Stuttgart matches a 0-2 win here earlier in 2026 and three wins from the last four meetings, so the 1X2 numbers look right.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
VfB Stuttgart are clear favourites at 64%, with SC Paderborn 07 on 16% and the draw on 20%. In their last five matches across all competitions, SC Paderborn 07 won two and VfB Stuttgart two. The prices point to about 3.4 goals.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- SC Paderborn 07 win or draw
- 36%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 81%
- VfB Stuttgart win or draw
- 84%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 66%
- 4+ goals
- 44%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 60%
- No
- 40%
We expect about 1.1 goals from SC Paderborn 07 and 2.3 from VfB Stuttgart. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–2 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 0–2 (9%), 1–1 (8%), 0–1 (8%), 1–3 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16% | 19% | 64% | Stats preview | #1675 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
SC Paderborn 07: last 6
WDLWLL · 6 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Hamburger SV Bundesliga | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Werder Bremen Bundesliga | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs VfB Stuttgart Bundesliga | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs 1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs SC Freiburg Bundesliga | 0–1 | L |
Last 4 at home: WLWL
VfB Stuttgart: last 6
LDLWWL · 8 scored, 6 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Oct | vs Atletico Madrid UEFA Champions League | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Hamburger SV Bundesliga | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Oct | at Slovan Bratislava UEFA Champions League | 3–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at SC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: LWWLL
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: SC Paderborn 07 won 0, VfB Stuttgart 3, 1 draw; 2.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | SC Paderborn 07 | 0–2 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 31 Jan 2023 | SC Paderborn 07 | 1–2 | VfB Stuttgart | DFB Pokal |
| 23 May 2015 | SC Paderborn 07 | 1–2 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 20 Dec 2014 | VfB Stuttgart | 0–0 | SC Paderborn 07 | Bundesliga |
Match context
- Travel for VfB Stuttgart
- 327 km
- Rest days
- SC Paderborn 07 4VfB Stuttgart 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: SC Paderborn 07 2 · VfB Stuttgart 4
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 6 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- R. Kettemann
- SC Paderborn 07, since Oct 2026
- S. Hoeneb
- VfB Stuttgart, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- DFB-Pokal average: 4.62 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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