Holstein Kiel vs TSG Hoffenheim prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
TSG Hoffenheim to win: 67%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 71% · bookies 71%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The three readings converge on a high-scoring game, with Hoffenheim remaining the clear favourites. While the dressing room notes Hoffenheim's heavy fixture load, the combined data points strongly towards a match exceeding the total line.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Holstein Kiel's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Holstein Kiel favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersHoffenheim's high-scoring away form meets Kiel's strong home attack.
Hoffenheim scored 9 goals and conceded 9 goals in their last 5 away fixtures. H2H history shows 4.8 goals per game over the last 4 encounters.
TSG Hoffenheim: slightly overrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureHoffenheim's recent fixture load could limit their effectiveness on this away trip.
Hoffenheim has played 4 games in 14 days, while Kiel has only played 2 games in 14 days. Hoffenheim's last 6 games included 3 wins and 3 losses.
Holstein Kiel: clearly underrated
Med The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market heavily favors the away side, but the historical goal output suggests a high-scoring affair regardless of the winner.
The market prices TSG Hoffenheim at 67%, but the H2H record shows 4 wins for them in the last 4 matches. The season average for goals is 4.62 per match.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
TSG Hoffenheim are clear favourites at 67%, with Holstein Kiel on 15% and the draw on 18%. In their last five matches across all competitions, Holstein Kiel won one and TSG Hoffenheim three. The prices point to about 3.7 goals.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Holstein Kiel win or draw
- 33%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 82%
- TSG Hoffenheim win or draw
- 85%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 88%
- 3+ goals
- 71%
- 4+ goals
- 51%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 63%
- No
- 37%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Holstein Kiel and 2.5 from TSG Hoffenheim. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–2 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 0–2 (8%), 1–3 (8%), 1–1 (7%), 0–3 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15% | 18% | 67% | Stats preview | #1665 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Holstein Kiel: last 6
WDLDLD · 6 scored, 5 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Dynamo Dresden 2. Bundesliga | 3–0 | W |
| 16 Oct | vs Hertha BSC 2. Bundesliga | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Eintracht Braunschweig 2. Bundesliga | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs VfL Osnabrück 2. Bundesliga | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | at 1. FC Heidenheim 2. Bundesliga | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs 1. FC Nürnberg 2. Bundesliga | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: WDDDD
TSG Hoffenheim: last 6
WWWLLL · 13 scored, 10 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Oct | vs Lyon UEFA Europa League | 3–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Borussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Beşiktaş UEFA Europa League | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Hamburger SV Bundesliga | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | at SC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 away: WLLLW
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Holstein Kiel won 0, TSG Hoffenheim 4, 0 draws; 4.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | TSG Hoffenheim | 3–1 | Holstein Kiel | Friendlies Clubs |
| 18 Jan 2025 | Holstein Kiel | 1–3 | TSG Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 24 Aug 2024 | TSG Hoffenheim | 3–2 | Holstein Kiel | Bundesliga |
| 26 Oct 2021 | TSG Hoffenheim | 5–1 | Holstein Kiel | DFB Pokal |
Match context
- Travel for TSG Hoffenheim
- 570 km
- Rest days
- Holstein Kiel 3TSG Hoffenheim 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Holstein Kiel 2 · TSG Hoffenheim 4
- Weather at kick-off
- 10°C · wind 11 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- C. Ilzer
- TSG Hoffenheim, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- DFB-Pokal average: 4.62 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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