FC Cologne vs 1. FC Union Berlin prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Cologne to win: 52%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 59% · bookies 59%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The analysis suggests FC Cologne holds the edge, supported by their home performance and Union Berlin's struggles on the road. While the fixture load is balanced, the statistical indicators point towards a high-scoring match favouring the home side.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think FC Cologne's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersFC Cologne's home record shows a tendency to be involved in goals, while Union Berlin struggles on the road.
Cologne has scored 6 and conceded 4 in their last 4 home matches. Union Berlin has conceded 14 goals in their last 4 away fixtures.
Cologne: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBoth sides enter the DFB-Pokal fixture with identical rest periods and recent fixture loads.
Both FC Cologne and 1. FC Union Berlin have had 3 days since their last game. Both teams have played 2 games in the last 14 days.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market appears to undervalue FC Cologne's home advantage given Union Berlin's poor away form.
In the last 4 away games, 1. FC Union Berlin conceded 14 goals. Historically, the last 6 meetings saw Union win 3 times, but also draw 2 times.
Cologne: clearly underrated
More goalsMed Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
FC Cologne are favourites at 52%, with 1. FC Union Berlin on 24% and the draw on 24%. In their last five matches across all competitions, FC Cologne won one and 1. FC Union Berlin one. The prices point to about 3.0 goals.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- FC Cologne win or draw
- 76%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- 1. FC Union Berlin win or draw
- 48%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 59%
- 4+ goals
- 36%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 59%
- No
- 41%
We expect about 1.8 goals from FC Cologne and 1.2 from 1. FC Union Berlin. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 1–2 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% | 24% | 24% | Stats preview | #1616 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
FC Cologne: last 6
DLWLDL · 5 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs FC Schalke 04 Bundesliga | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Oct | at Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Hamburger SV Bundesliga | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Werder Bremen Bundesliga | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Sep | at VfB Stuttgart Bundesliga | 1–4 | L |
Last 4 at home: DWDW
1. FC Union Berlin: last 6
DDWLLL · 3 scored, 15 conceded
| 24 Oct | at FC Augsburg Bundesliga | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs SV Elversberg Bundesliga | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | at Bayern München Bundesliga | 0–7 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs FC Schalke 04 Bundesliga | 1–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga | 0–4 | L |
Last 4 away: DLLW
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: FC Cologne won 1, 1. FC Union Berlin 3, 2 draws; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 May 2026 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 2–2 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 20 Dec 2025 | FC Cologne | 0–1 | 1. FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 11 May 2024 | FC Cologne | 3–2 | 1. FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 20 Dec 2023 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 2–0 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 4 Mar 2023 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 0–0 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 11 Sep 2022 | FC Cologne | 0–1 | 1. FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
Match context
- Travel for 1. FC Union Berlin
- 478 km
- Rest days
- FC Cologne 31. FC Union Berlin 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: FC Cologne 2 · 1. FC Union Berlin 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 15°C · wind 9 km/h
- Rain expected
- Coaches
- René Wagner
- FC Cologne, since Oct 2026
- M. Lustrinelli
- 1. FC Union Berlin, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- DFB-Pokal average: 4.62 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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