Vanspor FK vs Sarıyer prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Vanspor FK 38%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings land within a few points of the published numbers: a genuinely tight match with Sarıyer edging the away side's case on form and Vanspor's home struggles offsetting home advantage. The over 2.5 line at 47% is the one number the sceptic nudges down, given both sides' modest scoring rates, but nobody strays far from the market.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Sarıyer's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences point to goals, but Vanspor's home scoring drought caps the total.
Vanspor concede 1.83 per game with clean sheets in just 8% of matches, yet score only 0.67 at home. Sarıyer score 1.29 on the road and both teams have scored in 67% of their games.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureVanspor's poor home run against a mid-table visitor makes the hosts hard to back.
Vanspor sit 18th with 10 points from 12 games and have lost three of their last five at home, conceding 9 in that run. Both had a full week to prepare, so fatigue is no excuse.
Sarıyer: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market's near-even read looks fair, though the total may be a touch generous.
Sarıyer have one win in six and failed to win their last three, while Vanspor's 38% home price sits oddly above the visitors despite an 18th-place profile. Sarıyer's 42% over-2.5 rate and Vanspor's 42% failure-to-score rate make 47% for over 2.5 look slightly high.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Vanspor FK are slight favourites at 38%, with Sarıyer on 34% and the draw on 28%. Vanspor FK are 18th and Sarıyer 11th in the Turkish 1. Lig. In their last five league games, Vanspor FK won two and Sarıyer one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Vanspor FK win or draw
- 66%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Sarıyer win or draw
- 62%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Vanspor FK and 1.2 from Sarıyer. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (10%), 2–1 (8%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% | 28% | 34% | Stats preview | #1995 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Vanspor FK: last 6
WLWLLD · 6 scored, 9 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Boluspor | 3–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Ümraniyespor | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Oct | at Pendikspor | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Bandırmaspor | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Antalyaspor | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Keçiörengücü | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: LLDLW
Sarıyer: last 6
LDLDWD · 6 scored, 10 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Fatih Karagümrük | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Sivasspor | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs Bodrum FK | 1–4 | L |
| 9 Oct | at Ümraniyespor | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Boluspor | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs Bandırmaspor | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: DDLWD
Season stats
| Vanspor FK | Sarıyer | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.08 | Goals scored per game | 1.17 |
| 1.83 | Goals conceded per game | 1.42 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game at home | 1.29 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 8% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 42% | Failed to score | 17% |
League matches only, 12 games each.
Turkish 1. Lig table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 12 | -1 | 18 | LWLWW |
| 9 | Bodrum FK | 12 | +4 | 17 | WWWLD |
| 10 | Fatih Karagümrük | 12 | +1 | 16 | WLLDW |
| 11 | Sarıyer | 12 | -3 | 16 | LDLDW |
| 12 | Bandırmaspor | 12 | +7 | 14 | LLDWL |
| 13 | Ümraniyespor | 11 | +3 | 13 | WWDWL |
| 14 | Sivasspor | 12 | -3 | 13 | LDDWD |
| 15 | Esenler Erokspor | 12 | -4 | 12 | LWDWL |
| 16 | Pendikspor | 12 | -9 | 11 | DLLLD |
| 17 | Manisa F.K. | 12 | -3 | 10 | LLDLL |
| 18 | Vanspor FK | 12 | -9 | 10 −2 | WLWLL |
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 12 | -22 | 5 | LLLLW |
| 20 | Boluspor | 11 | -22 | 1 | LLLLD |
Match context
- Travel for Sarıyer
- 251 km
- Rest days
- Vanspor FK 7Sarıyer 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Vanspor FK 2 · Sarıyer 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 18°C · wind 11 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Turkish 1. Lig average: 2.76 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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