Bursaspor vs Bandırmaspor prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Bursaspor to win: 67%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 56% · bookies 56%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The split view is on goals: the coach sees 75% over-rates from the hosts justifying a nudge above the 56% line, while the sceptic points to Bandırmaspor's 33% over rate and tight defence holding the over near the published number. Overall: home win, moderate-goals leaning.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBandırmaspor score 1.00 away per game and keep 33% clean sheets.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTop-of-form hosts with the fresher league position can handle the pressure.
Bursaspor sit 1st with 28 points from 12 games, winning nine, and have taken four wins in their last six. Bandırmaspor are 12th on 14 points, with five draws among their points and back-to-back losses to Iğdır FK and Bodrum FK.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 67% on Bursaspor looks fair, but the 56% over line may be a touch high.
Bursaspor concede 0.92 per game and Bandırmaspor 0.83, while Bandırmaspor's matches go over 2.5 only 33% of the time and they have drawn five of twelve. The 67% home price matches the record well, but 2.5 goals leans on Bursaspor alone.
Bursaspor: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Bursaspor are clear favourites at 67%, with Bandırmaspor on 14% and the draw on 19%. Bursaspor are 1st and Bandırmaspor 12th in the Turkish 1. Lig. In their last five league games, Bursaspor won four and Bandırmaspor one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Bursaspor win or draw
- 86%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 81%
- Bandırmaspor win or draw
- 33%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 56%
- 4+ goals
- 34%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 49%
- No
- 51%
We expect about 2.1 goals from Bursaspor and 0.8 from Bandırmaspor. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (9%), 3–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 67% | 19% | 14% | Stats preview | #2059 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Bursaspor: last 6
WWWLWD · 14 scored, 7 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Keçiörengücü | 4–2 | W |
| 19 Oct | vs Pendikspor | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Oct | at Muğlaspor | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Mardin 1969 | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Batman Petrolspor | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Esenler Erokspor | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: WLDWW
Bandırmaspor: last 6
LLDWLD · 6 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Iğdır FK | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Bodrum FK | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Sivasspor | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Vanspor FK | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | vs Ümraniyespor | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Sep | at Sarıyer | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: LWDDD
Season stats
| Bursaspor | Bandırmaspor | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.17 | Goals scored per game | 1.42 |
| 0.92 | Goals conceded per game | 0.83 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.71 |
| 2.29 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 58% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 42% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 25% |
League matches only, 12 games each.
Turkish 1. Lig table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bursaspor | 12 | +15 | 28 | WWWLW |
| 2 | Kayserispor | 12 | +17 | 27 | DDWWW |
| 3 | Iğdır FK | 12 | +8 | 26 | WWDWD |
| 4 | Batman Petrolspor | 12 | +4 | 23 | WDWLL |
| … | |||||
| 9 | Bodrum FK | 12 | +4 | 17 | WWWLD |
| 10 | Fatih Karagümrük | 12 | +1 | 16 | WLLDW |
| 11 | Sarıyer | 12 | -3 | 16 | LDLDW |
| 12 | Bandırmaspor | 12 | +7 | 14 | LLDWL |
| 13 | Ümraniyespor | 11 | +3 | 13 | WWDWL |
| 14 | Sivasspor | 12 | -3 | 13 | LDDWD |
| 15 | Esenler Erokspor | 12 | -4 | 12 | LWDWL |
Match context
- Travel for Bandırmaspor
- 116 km
- Rest days
- Bursaspor 5Bandırmaspor 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Bursaspor 2 · Bandırmaspor 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 16°C · wind 11 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Turkish 1. Lig average: 2.76 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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