Bodrum FK vs Ümraniyespor prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Bodrum FK to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 54% · bookies 54%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
Key factors
In short
Bodrum FK are slight favourites at 42%, with Ümraniyespor on 29% and the draw on 29%. Bodrum FK are 9th and Ümraniyespor 13th in the Turkish 1. Lig. In their last five league games, Bodrum FK won three and Ümraniyespor three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Bodrum FK win or draw
- 71%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Ümraniyespor win or draw
- 58%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 71%
- 3+ goals
- 46%
- 4+ goals
- 24%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 51%
- No
- 49%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Bodrum FK and 1.1 from Ümraniyespor. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% | 30% | 31% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1988 | |
| 2 | 42% | 29% | 29% | Prices moved | #2219 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Bodrum FK: last 6
WWWLDW · 13 scored, 6 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Antalyaspor | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Bandırmaspor | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Oct | at Sarıyer | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Keçiörengücü | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Pendikspor | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Batman Petrolspor | 4–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLWDD
Ümraniyespor: last 6
WWDWLL · 9 scored, 4 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Sivasspor | 4–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Vanspor FK | 2–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Sarıyer | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Sep | at Bandırmaspor | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Antalyaspor | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Pendikspor | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: WWLDL
Season stats
| Bodrum FK | Ümraniyespor | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.25 | Goals scored per game | 1.18 |
| 0.92 | Goals conceded per game | 0.91 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.17 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.20 |
| 42% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 36% |
| 42% | Both teams scored | 45% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 27% |
League matches only, 12 and 11 games.
Turkish 1. Lig table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Keçiörengücü | 12 | +8 | 20 | LWDWD |
| 7 | Muğlaspor | 12 | +4 | 18 | WWLDD |
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 12 | -1 | 18 | LWLWW |
| 9 | Bodrum FK | 12 | +4 | 17 | WWWLD |
| 10 | Fatih Karagümrük | 12 | +1 | 16 | WLLDW |
| 11 | Sarıyer | 12 | -3 | 16 | LDLDW |
| 12 | Bandırmaspor | 12 | +7 | 14 | LLDWL |
| 13 | Ümraniyespor | 11 | +3 | 13 | WWDWL |
| 14 | Sivasspor | 12 | -3 | 13 | LDDWD |
| 15 | Esenler Erokspor | 12 | -4 | 12 | LWDWL |
| 16 | Pendikspor | 12 | -9 | 11 | DLLLD |
Match context
- Travel for Ümraniyespor
- 461 km
- Rest days
- Bodrum FK 7Ümraniyespor 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Bodrum FK 1 · Ümraniyespor 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 18°C · wind 11 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Turkish 1. Lig average: 2.76 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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