Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Kayserispor to win: 57%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 55%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
Key factors
In short
Kayserispor are favourites at 57%, with Muğlaspor on 20% and the draw on 23%. Kayserispor are 2nd and Muğlaspor 7th in the Turkish 1. Lig. In their last five league games, Kayserispor won three and Muğlaspor two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Kayserispor win or draw
- 80%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Muğlaspor win or draw
- 43%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Kayserispor and 1.0 from Muğlaspor. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (10%), 3–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% | 22% | 20% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1859 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Kayserispor: last 6
DDWWWW · 16 scored, 6 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Pendikspor | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Batman Petrolspor | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Oct | at Antalyaspor | 4–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Manisa F.K. | 3–2 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Mardin 1969 | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Sep | vs İstanbulspor | 4–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWLW
Muğlaspor: last 6
WWLDDD · 13 scored, 10 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs İstanbulspor | 5–0 | W |
| 19 Oct | at Manisa F.K. | 4–3 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Bursaspor | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Fatih Karagümrük | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs Iğdır FK | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | at Sivasspor | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: WDDWD
Season stats
| Kayserispor | Muğlaspor | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.17 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 0.75 | Goals conceded per game | 1.17 |
| 2.40 | Scored per game at home | 1.83 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 1.17 |
| 58% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| 42% | Both teams scored | 42% |
| 58% | Clean sheets | 42% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 12 games each.
Turkish 1. Lig table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bursaspor | 12 | +15 | 28 | WWWLW |
| 2 | Kayserispor | 12 | +17 | 27 | DDWWW |
| 3 | Iğdır FK | 12 | +8 | 26 | WWDWD |
| 4 | Batman Petrolspor | 12 | +4 | 23 | WDWLL |
| 5 | Mardin 1969 | 12 | +5 | 21 | WLWWL |
| 6 | Keçiörengücü | 12 | +8 | 20 | LWDWD |
| 7 | Muğlaspor | 12 | +4 | 18 | WWLDD |
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 12 | -1 | 18 | LWLWW |
| 9 | Bodrum FK | 12 | +4 | 17 | WWWLD |
| 10 | Fatih Karagümrük | 12 | +1 | 16 | WLLDW |
Match context
- Travel for Muğlaspor
- 646 km
- Rest days
- Kayserispor 8Muğlaspor 9
- Matches in the last 14 days: Kayserispor 1 · Muğlaspor 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 14°C · wind 7 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Turkish 1. Lig average: 2.76 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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