Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Esenler Erokspor to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 55% · bookies 55%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The analysis suggests a tight contest where Keçiörengücü's superior league position and away form give them the edge. While Esenler's home record is poor, the high scoring environment and both teams' offensive capabilities point towards a match with multiple goals.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three think Keçiörengücü's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersKeçiörengücü's strong away scoring rate contrasts with Esenler's defensive struggles at home.
Keçiörengücü averages 1.83 goals away and concedes only 1.25 per game. Esenler Erokspor has scored 5 goals and conceded 9 in their last 5 home fixtures.
Keçiörengücü: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureKeçiörengücü enters the match in a significantly stronger position, boasting 20 points compared to Esenler's 12.
Keçiörengücü sits 6th with 20 points from 12 games, while Esenler Erokspor is 15th with 12 points. Both sides have had 5 days rest since their last fixture.
Keçiörengücü: strongly underrated
Fewer goalsHigh The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market slightly overvalues Esenler's home win chance given their recent defensive frailties.
Esenler Erokspor has failed to score in 42% of their matches, yet the market assigns them a 48% chance of victory. Keçiörengücü has a high BTTS rate of 67%.
Keçiörengücü: clearly underrated
More goalsMed Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Esenler Erokspor are favourites at 47%, with Keçiörengücü on 27% and the draw on 26%. Esenler Erokspor are 15th and Keçiörengücü 6th in the Turkish 1. Lig. In their last five league games, Esenler Erokspor won two and Keçiörengücü two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Esenler Erokspor win or draw
- 73%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Keçiörengücü win or draw
- 52%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 32%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Esenler Erokspor and 1.2 from Keçiörengücü. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 0–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% | 26% | 27% | Stats preview | #1987 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Esenler Erokspor: last 6
LWDWLD · 10 scored, 10 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Batman Petrolspor | 2–3 | L |
| 19 Oct | vs Mardin 1969 | 4–2 | W |
| 15 Oct | at Manisa F.K. | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at İstanbulspor | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Fatih Karagümrük | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Bursaspor | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: WLLLD
Keçiörengücü: last 6
LWDWDD · 8 scored, 7 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Bursaspor | 2–4 | L |
| 19 Oct | at Fatih Karagümrük | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs Iğdır FK | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Bodrum FK | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Sivasspor | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Vanspor FK | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: WWDWD
Season stats
| Esenler Erokspor | Keçiörengücü | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.92 |
| 1.33 | Goals conceded per game | 1.25 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.83 |
| 33% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 42% | Failed to score | 8% |
League matches only, 12 games each.
Turkish 1. Lig table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Iğdır FK | 12 | +8 | 26 | WWDWD |
| 4 | Batman Petrolspor | 12 | +4 | 23 | WDWLL |
| 5 | Mardin 1969 | 12 | +5 | 21 | WLWWL |
| 6 | Keçiörengücü | 12 | +8 | 20 | LWDWD |
| 7 | Muğlaspor | 12 | +4 | 18 | WWLDD |
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 12 | -1 | 18 | LWLWW |
| 9 | Bodrum FK | 12 | +4 | 17 | WWWLD |
| … | |||||
| 12 | Bandırmaspor | 12 | +7 | 14 | LLDWL |
| 13 | Ümraniyespor | 11 | +3 | 13 | WWDWL |
| 14 | Sivasspor | 12 | -3 | 13 | LDDWD |
| 15 | Esenler Erokspor | 12 | -4 | 12 | LWDWL |
| 16 | Pendikspor | 12 | -9 | 11 | DLLLD |
| 17 | Manisa F.K. | 12 | -3 | 10 | LLDLL |
| 18 | Vanspor FK | 12 | -9 | 10 −2 | WLWLL |
Match context
- Travel for Keçiörengücü
- 351 km
- Rest days
- Esenler Erokspor 5Keçiörengücü 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Esenler Erokspor 2 · Keçiörengücü 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 14°C · wind 5 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Turkish 1. Lig average: 2.76 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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