Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Bursaspor to win: 49%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 58% · bookies 58%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The three readings suggest a tight match where Bursaspor's superior league standing and defensive metrics give them the slight advantage. While the historical record is balanced, the overall data leans towards a high-scoring affair, with the away side being the most likely winner.
What our AI analysts say
All three think Keçiörengücü's chances are better than the bookmakers say. None of them makes Keçiörengücü favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBursaspor's defensive solidity and high away scoring rate give them the edge in this encounter.
Bursaspor averages 1.83 goals away and concedes only 0.82 per game. Keçiörengücü scores 2.00 at home but concedes 1.00.
Keçiörengücü: clearly underrated
Med The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBursaspor's superior league position and consistent form present a significant challenge for the home side.
Bursaspor sits 2nd with 25 points from 11 games (W8 D1 L2). Keçiörengücü is 4th with 20 points (W5 D5 L1). Both teams have minimal rest.
Keçiörengücü: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market slightly undervalues the historical parity between these two sides.
Head-to-head history is perfectly balanced with 3 wins for each side. Both teams have strong recent form, with Bursaspor winning 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Keçiörengücü: strongly underrated
High Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Bursaspor are favourites at 49%, with Keçiörengücü on 26% and the draw on 25%. Keçiörengücü are 5th and Bursaspor 3rd in the Turkish 1. Lig. In their last five league games, Keçiörengücü won two and Bursaspor three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Keçiörengücü win or draw
- 51%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Bursaspor win or draw
- 74%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 58%
- 4+ goals
- 36%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 59%
- No
- 41%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Keçiörengücü and 1.8 from Bursaspor. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (10%), 0–1 (9%), 0–2 (8%), 2–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34% | 25% | 41% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1136 | |
| 2 | 27% | 27% | 46% | Prices moved | #1321 | |
| 3 | 26% | 25% | 49% | Prices moved | #1451 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Keçiörengücü: last 6
WDWDDW · 9 scored, 3 conceded
| 19 Oct | at Fatih Karagümrük | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs Iğdır FK | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Bodrum FK | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Sivasspor | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Vanspor FK | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Sarıyer | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DDWDW
Bursaspor: last 6
WWLWDW · 12 scored, 6 conceded
| 19 Oct | vs Pendikspor | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Oct | at Muğlaspor | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Mardin 1969 | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Batman Petrolspor | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Esenler Erokspor | 2–2 | D |
| 7 Sep | at Manisa F.K. | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: WWWWL
Season stats
| Keçiörengücü | Bursaspor | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.91 | Goals scored per game | 2.00 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 0.82 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 1.83 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 45% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 73% |
| 64% | Both teams scored | 55% |
| 36% | Clean sheets | 45% |
| 9% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Turkish 1. Lig table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayserispor | 12 | +17 | 27 | DDWWW |
| 2 | Iğdır FK | 12 | +8 | 26 | WWDWD |
| 3 | Bursaspor | 11 | +13 | 25 | WWLWD |
| 4 | Batman Petrolspor | 12 | +4 | 23 | WDWLL |
| 5 | Keçiörengücü | 11 | +10 | 20 | WDWDD |
| 6 | Muğlaspor | 12 | +4 | 18 | WWLDD |
| 7 | Mardin 1969 | 11 | +4 | 18 | LWWLL |
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 12 | -1 | 18 | LWLWW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Keçiörengücü won 3, Bursaspor 3, 0 draws; 1.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Apr 2022 | Keçiörengücü | 2–1 | Bursaspor | 1. Lig |
| 1 Nov 2021 | Bursaspor | 2–0 | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
| 9 May 2021 | Bursaspor | 0–3 | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
| 2 Jan 2021 | Keçiörengücü | 0–1 | Bursaspor | 1. Lig |
| 20 Jun 2020 | Keçiörengücü | 1–0 | Bursaspor | 1. Lig |
| 23 Nov 2019 | Bursaspor | 1–0 | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
Match context
- Rest days
- Keçiörengücü 6Bursaspor 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Keçiörengücü 2 · Bursaspor 2
- Referee
- Emre Kargin
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
