Muğlaspor vs İstanbulspor prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Muğlaspor to win: 49%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 51% · bookies 51% · ✗ 5 goals
The Verdict
All three readings point the same way: Muğlaspor are fairly priced at 45% given İstanbulspor's defensive collapse and the home side's draw-heavy record, while the 48% over line leans on İstanbulspor's 64% over rate and could easily fall short. Both-teams-score at 52% looks about right. No strong disagreement with the published picture.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 2 think İstanbulspor's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make İstanbulspor favourites.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFixture congestion and a dire run leave İstanbulspor under real pressure.
Both sides have played 3 games in 14 days, with İstanbulspor on 5 days' rest to Muğlaspor's 4 - little margin for either. The gap in circumstances shapes this as a home side stable in the mid-table pack against a side scrapping near the bottom.
Muğlaspor: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMarket broadly fair, but İstanbulspor's away collapse makes 28% look generous.
That away record argues Muğlaspor deserve a touch more than 45%. On totals, İstanbulspor's games go over 2.5 at 64% against Muğlaspor's 36%, which supports the published 48% over line.
İstanbulspor: slightly underrated
More goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Muğlaspor are favourites at 49%, with İstanbulspor on 25% and the draw on 26%. Muğlaspor are 9th and İstanbulspor 19th in the Turkish 1. Lig. In their last five league games, Muğlaspor won one and İstanbulspor one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Muğlaspor win or draw
- 75%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- İstanbulspor win or draw
- 51%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 49%
- 4+ goals
- 27%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Muğlaspor and 1.1 from İstanbulspor. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (9%), 0–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Muğlaspor: last 6
WLDDDD · 10 scored, 12 conceded
| 19 Oct | at Manisa F.K. | 4–3 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Bursaspor | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Fatih Karagümrük | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs Iğdır FK | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | at Sivasspor | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Vanspor FK | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: LDDWD
İstanbulspor: last 6
LLLWLL · 4 scored, 13 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Antalyaspor | 0–2 | L |
| 14 Oct | at Batman Petrolspor | 2–4 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Esenler Erokspor | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Manisa F.K. | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Sep | at Kayserispor | 0–4 | L |
| 7 Sep | vs Iğdır FK | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LWLLL
Season stats
| Muğlaspor | İstanbulspor | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.18 | Goals scored per game | 0.82 |
| 1.27 | Goals conceded per game | 2.36 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game at home | 0.80 |
| 1.17 | Scored per game away | 0.83 |
| 36% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| 45% | Both teams scored | 45% |
| 36% | Clean sheets | 9% |
| 36% | Failed to score | 45% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Turkish 1. Lig table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bursaspor | 11 | +13 | 25 | WWLWD |
| 4 | Batman Petrolspor | 12 | +4 | 23 | WDWLL |
| 5 | Keçiörengücü | 11 | +10 | 20 | WDWDD |
| 6 | Muğlaspor | 12 | +4 | 18 | WWLDD |
| 7 | Mardin 1969 | 11 | +4 | 18 | LWWLL |
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 12 | -1 | 18 | LWLWW |
| 9 | Bodrum FK | 12 | +4 | 17 | WWWLD |
| … | |||||
| 16 | Pendikspor | 12 | -9 | 11 | DLLLD |
| 17 | Manisa F.K. | 11 | -2 | 10 | LDLLD |
| 18 | Vanspor FK | 12 | -9 | 10 −2 | WLWLL |
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 12 | -22 | 5 | LLLLW |
| 20 | Boluspor | 11 | -22 | 1 | LLLLD |
Match context
- Rest days
- Muğlaspor 4İstanbulspor 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Muğlaspor 3 · İstanbulspor 3
- Referee
- Burak Olcar
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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