Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Ümraniyespor to win: 41%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 51% · bookies 51% · ✗ 4 goals
The Verdict
The over 2.5 line sits right on the 49% mark, with Sivasspor's high both-teams-score rate the main argument for goals and Ümraniyespor's quiet home scoring the main argument against.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Dressing Room thinks a draw is underrated; The Sceptic thinks Sivasspor are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSivasspor's scoring habit points to goals despite Ümraniyespor's tight home games
Sivasspor score 1.67 per game at home but only 1.00 away, while both teams score in 82% of their matches against Ümraniyespor's 50%. Ümraniyespor concede 1.00 per game and keep clean sheets 30% of the time, so chances should come at both ends.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMid-table sides with draw-heavy profiles make this tight and low stakes
Sivasspor sit 12th with 13 points from 11 games, built on seven draws, while Ümraniyespor are 15th with 10 from 10. Ümraniyespor have won two of their last three in the league and are fresher with one game in 14 days versus Sivasspor's two.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 41% home price looks generous given Ümraniyespor's home scoring
Ümraniyespor score just 0.60 per game at home and their last five home games read D L L D D with three goals scored. Sivasspor's 82% both-teams-score rate and 45% over-2.5 rate make the 49% over line and 30% away price look fair, but the home lean seems too strong.
Sivasspor: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Ümraniyespor are slight favourites at 41%, with Sivasspor on 30% and the draw on 29%. Ümraniyespor are 15th and Sivasspor 12th in the Turkish 1. Lig. In their last five league games, Ümraniyespor won two and Sivasspor one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Ümraniyespor win or draw
- 70%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Sivasspor win or draw
- 59%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 73%
- 3+ goals
- 48%
- 4+ goals
- 27%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Ümraniyespor and 1.2 from Sivasspor. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 2–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% | 29% | 30% | Stats preview | #659 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Ümraniyespor: last 6
WDWLLL · 5 scored, 5 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Vanspor FK | 2–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Sarıyer | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Sep | at Bandırmaspor | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Antalyaspor | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Pendikspor | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Sep | vs Muğlaspor | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: DLLDD
Sivasspor: last 6
DDWDDW · 10 scored, 6 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Sarıyer | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Oct | at Bandırmaspor | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Oct | vs Pendikspor | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Keçiörengücü | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Muğlaspor | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Antalyaspor | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: DDWLL
Season stats
| Ümraniyespor | Sivasspor | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.90 | Goals scored per game | 1.36 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.27 |
| 0.60 | Scored per game at home | 1.67 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 30% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 82% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 9% |
| 30% | Failed to score | 18% |
League matches only, 10 and 11 games.
Turkish 1. Lig table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Fatih Karagümrük | 12 | +1 | 16 | WLLDW |
| 11 | Sarıyer | 12 | -3 | 16 | LDLDW |
| 12 | Bandırmaspor | 12 | +7 | 14 | LLDWL |
| 13 | Ümraniyespor | 11 | +3 | 13 | WWDWL |
| 14 | Sivasspor | 12 | -3 | 13 | LDDWD |
| 15 | Esenler Erokspor | 12 | -4 | 12 | LWDWL |
| 16 | Pendikspor | 12 | -9 | 11 | DLLLD |
| 17 | Manisa F.K. | 11 | -2 | 10 | LDLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Ümraniyespor won 2, Sivasspor 2, 2 draws; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2026 | Sivasspor | 1–0 | Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Ümraniyespor | 1–0 | Sivasspor | 1. Lig |
| 26 Jul 2023 | Sivasspor | 2–0 | Ümraniyespor | Friendlies Clubs |
| 7 May 2023 | Ümraniyespor | 4–1 | Sivasspor | Süper Lig |
| 12 Nov 2022 | Sivasspor | 2–2 | Ümraniyespor | Süper Lig |
| 18 Apr 2017 | Sivasspor | 0–0 | Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig |
Match context
- Rest days
- Ümraniyespor 5Sivasspor 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Ümraniyespor 1 · Sivasspor 2
- Referee
- Yucel Buyuk
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
