Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Sarıyer 37%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 55% · bookies 55% · ✓ 2 goals
The Verdict
The three readings suggest a high-scoring encounter where both teams' defensive frailties are key. While Sarıyer holds the table advantage, Fatih Karagümrük's historical success in this fixture cannot be ignored.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Sarıyer's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSarıyer's home attack meets Fatih Karagümrük's defensive vulnerabilities.
Sarıyer averages 1.50 goals scored at home but concedes 1.36 per game. Fatih Karagümrük scores 1.00 away but concedes 1.36 per game.
Sarıyer: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSarıyer holds the advantage with better league standing and rest.
Sarıyer sits 8th with 16 points from 11 games, having 7 days rest. Fatih Karagümrük is 13th with 13 points from 11 games, with 5 days rest.
Sarıyer: clearly underrated
Fewer goalsMed The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongFatih Karagümrük's historical dominance suggests the market is slightly high on the home side.
The market gives Sarıyer 38% while Fatih Karagümrük has 34%. However, Fatih Karagümrük won the last two encounters 3-0 and 2-0.
Sarıyer: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Sarıyer are slight favourites at 37%, with Fatih Karagümrük on 34% and the draw on 29%. Sarıyer are 9th and Fatih Karagümrük 13th in the Turkish 1. Lig. In their last five league games, Sarıyer won one and Fatih Karagümrük one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Sarıyer win or draw
- 66%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Fatih Karagümrük win or draw
- 62%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 70%
- 3+ goals
- 44%
- 4+ goals
- 23%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Sarıyer and 1.2 from Fatih Karagümrük. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (10%), 0–0 (9%), 2–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% | 29% | 34% | Stats preview | #723 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Sarıyer: last 6
DLDWDL · 6 scored, 11 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Sivasspor | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs Bodrum FK | 1–4 | L |
| 9 Oct | at Ümraniyespor | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Boluspor | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs Bandırmaspor | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | at Keçiörengücü | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: LWDWL
Fatih Karagümrük: last 6
LLDWDL · 8 scored, 9 conceded
| 19 Oct | vs Keçiörengücü | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | at Mardin 1969 | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Muğlaspor | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Esenler Erokspor | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Manisa F.K. | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Batman Petrolspor | 3–4 | L |
Last 5 away: LWLDL
Season stats
| Sarıyer | Fatih Karagümrük | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.27 | Goals scored per game | 1.27 |
| 1.36 | Goals conceded per game | 1.36 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.33 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.20 |
| 45% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 36% |
| 73% | Both teams scored | 73% |
| 18% | Clean sheets | 9% |
| 9% | Failed to score | 18% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Turkish 1. Lig table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mardin 1969 | 11 | +4 | 18 | LWWLL |
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 12 | -1 | 18 | LWLWW |
| 9 | Bodrum FK | 12 | +4 | 17 | WWWLD |
| 10 | Fatih Karagümrük | 12 | +1 | 16 | WLLDW |
| 11 | Sarıyer | 12 | -3 | 16 | LDLDW |
| 12 | Bandırmaspor | 12 | +7 | 14 | LLDWL |
| 13 | Ümraniyespor | 11 | +3 | 13 | WWDWL |
| 14 | Sivasspor | 12 | -3 | 13 | LDDWD |
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Sarıyer won 0, Fatih Karagümrük 2, 0 draws; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Dec 2024 | Fatih Karagümrük | 3–0 | Sarıyer | Türkiye Kupası |
| 1 Dec 2021 | Fatih Karagümrük | 2–0 | Sarıyer | Türkiye Kupası |
Match context
- Rest days
- Sarıyer 7Fatih Karagümrük 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Sarıyer 2 · Fatih Karagümrük 3
- Referee
- Copur Muhammet Alperen
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
