Newcastle United vs Everton prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Newcastle to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 52%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
In short
Newcastle United are slight favourites at 42%, with Everton on 33% and the draw on 25%. Newcastle United are 8th and Everton 11th in the Premier League. In their last five league games, Newcastle United won two and Everton one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Newcastle United win or draw
- 67%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Everton win or draw
- 58%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 52%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 56%
- No
- 44%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Newcastle United and 1.3 from Everton. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 25% | 33% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1910 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Newcastle United: last 6
WLLWLW · 7 scored, 10 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Crystal Palace | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Aston Villa | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Oct | at Coventry | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Hull City | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sep | at Leeds | 1–4 | L |
| 8 Sep | at Millwall League Cup | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: LWDWD
Everton: last 6
LLDWWD · 4 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Arsenal | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Chelsea | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Hull City | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Ipswich | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Wolves League Cup | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Tottenham | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: LDDDW
Season stats
| Newcastle United | Everton | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 1.75 | Goals conceded per game | 1.12 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 25% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 38% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 38% |
| 2.75 | Yellow cards per game | 2.00 |
League matches only, 8 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Newcastle United | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | +2 | 13 | LWWLD |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | +5 | 11 | DLDWD |
| 7 | Leeds | 8 | +3 | 11 | DDLDW |
| 8 | Newcastle United | 8 | -2 | 11 | WLLWL |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 8 | -3 | 11 | WWDWL |
| 10 | Hull City | 8 | +1 | 10 | DLDLD |
| 11 | Everton | 8 | -1 | 10 | LLDWD |
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | -4 | 10 | DLWLW |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | -1 | 9 | WWLLD |
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | -2 | 9 | WWDLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Newcastle United won 1, Everton 3, 2 draws; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2026 | Newcastle United | 1–3 | Everton | Friendlies Clubs |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Newcastle United | 2–3 | Everton | Premier League |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Everton | 1–4 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 25 May 2025 | Newcastle United | 0–1 | Everton | Premier League |
| 5 Oct 2024 | Everton | 0–0 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2 Apr 2024 | Newcastle United | 1–1 | Everton | Premier League |
Match context
- Stadium
- St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
- 52,758 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Newcastle United 8Everton 9
- Matches in the last 14 days: Newcastle United 1 · Everton 1
- Coaches
- M. Jaissle
- Newcastle United, since Aug 2026
- D. Moyes
- Everton, since Jan 2025
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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