Premier League predicted table 2026-27
Chances for every team to finish in each zone, from 10,000 simulations of the 320 remaining matches. Updated 17 Oct 2026, 08:57 UTC.
In short
- Brighton & Hove Albion are favourites for the title at 47%, ahead of Manchester City (41%).
- 3 teams finish in the top four in more than half of our simulations: Brighton & Hove Albion, Manchester City and Arsenal.
- One team has a relegation chance above 50%: Tottenham Hotspur.
Predicted final table
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | Exp. pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 18 | 76 | 41% | 95% | <1% |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 15 | 68 | 8% | 73% | <1% |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 13 | 77 | 47% | 96% | <1% |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 10 | 62 | 2% | 39% | <1% |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 10 | 56 | <1% | 15% | 1% |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 10 | 60 | 1% | 30% | <1% |
| 7 | Leeds United | 6 | 9 | 60 | 1% | 27% | <1% |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 9 | 55 | <1% | 12% | 1% |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 9 | 52 | <1% | 5% | 4% |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 9 | 47 | <1% | 1% | 12% |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 6 | 8 | 46 | <1% | 1% | 14% |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 7 | 47 | <1% | 1% | 11% |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 6 | 50 | <1% | 4% | 6% |
| 14 | Coventry City | 6 | 6 | 44 | <1% | <1% | 23% |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 5 | 42 | <1% | <1% | 31% |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 5 | 44 | <1% | <1% | 23% |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 4 | 43 | <1% | <1% | 27% |
| 18 | AFC Bournemouth | 6 | 3 | 41 | <1% | <1% | 35% |
| 19 | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 3 | 36 | <1% | <1% | 64% |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 2 | 39 | <1% | <1% | 48% |
Zones: Title = 1st; Top 4 = 1–4; Relegation = 18–20. Bold = more likely than not. 0% and 100% appear only when the outcome is already mathematically settled. A fifth Champions League place may be awarded on UEFA coefficients; this table does not assume it.
How this table is made
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season's results, adjusted for home advantage and pulled towards the league average while the sample is small. We then play every remaining match 10,000 times with goals drawn from those ratings, and count how often each team ends up in each zone. Current points come from the official table, so any points deductions are included. Ties are broken on goal difference, then goals scored.
It uses no bookmaker prices, news or AI: it is a pure model of the results so far. Early in the season it reacts strongly to a few big wins, so treat the extremes with care. The table updates after every round. Methodology