Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Arsenal to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 52% · bookies 52%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
In short
Arsenal are slight favourites at 42%, with Liverpool on 31% and the draw on 27%. Liverpool are 4th and Arsenal 2nd in the Premier League. In their last five league games, Liverpool won three and Arsenal four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Liverpool win or draw
- 58%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Arsenal win or draw
- 69%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 52%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 56%
- No
- 44%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Liverpool and 1.5 from Arsenal. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 2–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% | 28% | 37% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1818 | |
| 2 | 31% | 27% | 42% | Prices moved | #2191 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Liverpool: last 6
WWWWLW · 15 scored, 10 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Brighton | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Oct | vs Villarreal UEFA Champions League | 4–3 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Brentford | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Oct | at Lask Linz UEFA Champions League | 6–3 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Manchester City | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Bournemouth | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWLWD
Arsenal: last 6
WDWWWL · 10 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Everton | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Oct | at Bayern München UEFA Champions League | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Nottingham Forest | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Lille UEFA Champions League | 3–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Leeds | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Brighton | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 away: DWLWW
Season stats
| Liverpool | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.38 | Goals scored per game | 1.62 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 0.62 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.25 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 38% | Both teams scored | 25% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 62% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 12% |
| 2.38 | Yellow cards per game | 1.38 |
League matches only, 8 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Liverpool | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Premier League table
Match context
- Stadium
- Anfield, Liverpool
- 61,276 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Liverpool 7Arsenal 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Liverpool 2 · Arsenal 2
- Coaches
- Andoni Iraola
- Liverpool, since Jul 2026
- Mikel Arteta
- Arsenal, since Dec 2019
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
