AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Bournemouth to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 51% · bookies 51%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings lean the same way: Bournemouth favourites, but only modestly. The coach's split, the dressing room's mid-table proximity and the sceptic's away-tightness checks all sit near the published 45/28/27. On goals, Leeds' low over rate and slow away scoring pull slightly against the 51% over line, so goals look near or just under the number.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBournemouth's home scoring should test Leeds' tight defence.
Leeds away score only 0.75 per game and conceded 9 in their last 5 on the road. Leeds concede most after the break (3 goals 61-75), while Bournemouth's scoring peaks before half-time (4 in 31-45).
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTable says two mid-table sides, home edge enough to matter.
Bournemouth sit 13th with 9 points from 8 games, Leeds 7th on 11 points - only two points apart.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHome price looks fair; the goals line may be slightly generous.
The over 2.5 at 51% looks a touch high: Leeds' matches go over 2.5 just 25% of the time, both-teams-score is a league-average 54%, and only 29% of games reach 4+ goals.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
AFC Bournemouth are favourites at 45%, with Leeds United on 27% and the draw on 28%. AFC Bournemouth are 13th and Leeds United 7th in the Premier League. In their last five league games, AFC Bournemouth won two and Leeds United one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- AFC Bournemouth win or draw
- 73%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Leeds United win or draw
- 55%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 75%
- 3+ goals
- 51%
- 4+ goals
- 29%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 1.5 goals from AFC Bournemouth and 1.2 from Leeds United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 0–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% | 27% | 36% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1832 | |
| 2 | 45% | 28% | 27% | Prices moved | #2104 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
AFC Bournemouth: last 6
WWWWLL · 12 scored, 6 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Manchester United | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Oct | vs AC Milan UEFA Europa League | 3–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Sunderland | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Sturm Graz UEFA Europa League | 3–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Chelsea | 1–5 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Liverpool | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWWLD
Leeds United: last 6
DDLDWL · 9 scored, 10 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Sunderland | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Manchester United | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Arsenal | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Crystal Palace | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Sep | vs Newcastle | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Sep | at Chelsea League Cup | 3–6 | L |
Last 5 away: DLLDW
Season stats
| AFC Bournemouth | Leeds United | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | Goals scored per game | 1.12 |
| 1.62 | Goals conceded per game | 0.75 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 25% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 62% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 2.75 | Yellow cards per game | 1.88 |
League matches only, 8 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | AFC Bournemouth | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | +3 | 15 | WWLWD |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | +2 | 13 | LWWLD |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | +5 | 11 | DLDWD |
| 7 | Leeds United | 8 | +3 | 11 | DDLDW |
| 8 | Newcastle | 8 | -2 | 11 | WLLWL |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 8 | -3 | 11 | WWDWL |
| 10 | Hull City | 8 | +1 | 10 | DLDLD |
| 11 | Everton | 8 | -1 | 10 | LLDWD |
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | -4 | 10 | DLWLW |
| 13 | AFC Bournemouth | 8 | -1 | 9 | WWLLD |
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | -2 | 9 | WWDLD |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | -2 | 8 | WWLDD |
| 16 | Manchester United | 8 | -3 | 7 | LDDDL |
Match context
- Stadium
- Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset
- 12,000 seats · grass
- Rest days
- AFC Bournemouth 6Leeds United 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: AFC Bournemouth 3 · Leeds United 2
- Coaches
- M. Rose
- AFC Bournemouth, since Aug 2026
- D. Farke
- Leeds United, since Jul 2023
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
