Brentford vs Nottingham Forest prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Brentford to win: 48%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 55% · bookies 55%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings lean the same way: Brentford's home record and scoring profile justify favouritism near the published 48%, with Forest's blunt attack (0.75 per game, 50% failed to score) keeping them underdogs despite the tight margins.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Brentford's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBrentford's home scoring meets Forest's leaky second-half defence
Forest concede heavily either side of half-time (three goals in 31-45 and three in 46-60), while Brentford spread their scoring across the middle periods. Both teams score in 57% of the published numbers.
Brentford: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressurePressure sits on Forest near the bottom three
Brentford sit 6th on 11 points from 8 games; Forest are 18th on 6 points, inside the Relegation places. Brentford's home form reads L W D W with 8 scored and 3 conceded, while Forest have one win in six. Both had similar rest: 6 days versus 7.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe prices look broadly fair, maybe slightly kind to Forest
Forest have failed to score in 50% of matches and score just 0.75 per game, yet get 27%. Brentford's 48% looks if anything a touch light given 75% both-teams-score and 62% over 2.5. The 55% over 2.5 line sits reasonably against Forest's 38% over-rate, so I keep close to published.
Brentford: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Brentford are favourites at 48%, with Nottingham Forest on 27% and the draw on 25%. Brentford are 6th and Nottingham Forest 18th in the Premier League. In their last five league games, Brentford won one and Nottingham Forest one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Brentford win or draw
- 73%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Nottingham Forest win or draw
- 52%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Brentford and 1.2 from Nottingham Forest. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 1–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% | 23% | 20% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2083 | |
| 2 | 48% | 25% | 27% | Prices moved | #2171 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Brentford: last 6
DLDWWD · 11 scored, 8 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Hull City | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Liverpool | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Aston Villa | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs Chelsea | 3–0 | W |
| 15 Sep | at Reading League Cup | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Bournemouth | 2–2 | D |
Last 4 at home: LWDW
Nottingham Forest: last 6
DLLLWD · 4 scored, 7 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Ipswich | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Arsenal | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Crystal Palace | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Coventry | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Aston Villa | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Tottenham | 0–0 | D |
Last 4 away: DLWD
Season stats
| Brentford | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.75 | Goals scored per game | 0.75 |
| 1.12 | Goals conceded per game | 1.25 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.00 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 75% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 50% |
| 2.50 | Yellow cards per game | 2.12 |
League matches only, 8 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Brentford | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brighton | 8 | +16 | 16 | LWWWW |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | +3 | 15 | WWLWD |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | +2 | 13 | LWWLD |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | +5 | 11 | DLDWD |
| 7 | Leeds | 8 | +3 | 11 | DDLDW |
| 8 | Newcastle | 8 | -2 | 11 | WLLWL |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 8 | -3 | 11 | WWDWL |
| … | |||||
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | -2 | 8 | WWLDD |
| 16 | Manchester United | 8 | -3 | 7 | LDDDL |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | -10 | 7 | LLWDL |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | -4 | 6 | DLLLW |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | -9 | 6 | LLWWL |
| 20 | Sunderland | 8 | -8 | 5 | DLLLL |
Match context
- Stadium
- Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex
- 17,250 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Brentford 6Nottingham Forest 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Brentford 1 · Nottingham Forest 2
- Coaches
- Keith Andrews
- Brentford, since Jul 2025
- O. Glasner
- Nottingham Forest, since Aug 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
