Aston Villa vs Fulham prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Aston Villa to win: 49%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 57% · bookies 57%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The three readings suggest Aston Villa are the favourites, backed by their strong home record and attacking statistics. While Fulham is competitive, the high scoring rates and late-game vulnerabilities of both teams point towards a match with multiple goals.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Dressing Room thinks a draw is underrated; The Sceptic thinks Aston Villa are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersAston Villa's aggressive home attack contrasts with Fulham's inconsistent away scoring.
Aston Villa scores 1.25 goals per game at home, but also concedes 1.50. They are particularly vulnerable late, conceding 4 goals in the 76-90 period.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureVilla's strong recent form and home advantage give them the edge over a mid-table Fulham.
Aston Villa sits in 9th place with 11 points from 8 games, showing strong recent form. Fulham is in 15th place with 8 points from 8 games, displaying more inconsistency. Both sides have 7 days of rest.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market slightly overvalues Fulham's ability to secure a result away from home.
The market gives Aston Villa a 49% chance of winning, which aligns with their home strength. However, Fulham's away scoring rate of 0.50 goals per game suggests their 26% win probability might be slightly inflated.
Aston Villa: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Aston Villa are favourites at 49%, with Fulham on 26% and the draw on 25%. Aston Villa are 9th and Fulham 15th in the Premier League. In their last five league games, Aston Villa won three and Fulham two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Aston Villa win or draw
- 74%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Fulham win or draw
- 51%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 56%
- 4+ goals
- 34%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Aston Villa and 1.2 from Fulham. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 1–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 27% | 28% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2028 | |
| 2 | 49% | 25% | 26% | Prices moved | #2160 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Aston Villa: last 6
WWWWDW · 17 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Manchester City | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Oct | vs Viking UEFA Champions League | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Newcastle | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs Fenerbahçe UEFA Champions League | 6–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Brentford | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Tottenham | 3–2 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWDL
Fulham: last 6
WWLDWD · 7 scored, 5 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Coventry | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Hull City | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Ipswich | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Manchester United | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | at West Ham League Cup | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Liverpool | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: WLWDL
Season stats
| Aston Villa | Fulham | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.12 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.25 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.50 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 2.25 | Yellow cards per game | 2.00 |
League matches only, 8 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Aston Villa | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | +5 | 11 | DLDWD |
| 7 | Leeds | 8 | +3 | 11 | DDLDW |
| 8 | Newcastle | 8 | -2 | 11 | WLLWL |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 8 | -3 | 11 | WWDWL |
| 10 | Hull City | 8 | +1 | 10 | DLDLD |
| 11 | Everton | 8 | -1 | 10 | LLDWD |
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | -4 | 10 | DLWLW |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | -1 | 9 | WWLLD |
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | -2 | 9 | WWDLD |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | -2 | 8 | WWLDD |
| 16 | Manchester United | 8 | -3 | 7 | LDDDL |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | -10 | 7 | LLWDL |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | -4 | 6 | DLLLW |
Match context
- Stadium
- Villa Park, Birmingham
- 42,824 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Aston Villa 7Fulham 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Aston Villa 2 · Fulham 1
- Coaches
- Unai Emery
- Aston Villa, since Nov 2022
- Álvaro Arbeloa
- Fulham, since Aug 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
