Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Stockport to win: 78%, about 4 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 65% · bookies 65%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings agree: Stockport's home scoring, Wimbledon's poor away record and the table gap make a home win the clear expectation, close to the published 77%. The only mild doubt is the total, where Stockport's 50% over rate suggests 2.5 goals is nearer a coin-flip than the 65% published.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersStockport's home scoring and Wimbledon's leaky away defence point to a home win with goals.
Stockport score 2.33 per game at home and have won five of their last six. Stockport's goals cluster after the break, while Wimbledon concede five in both the 16-30 and 76-90 periods.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSecond hosts sixteenth with Stockport chasing automatic promotion and in strong form.
Stockport sit 2nd on 23 points from 12 games, inside the automatic promotion places, unbeaten in five league games. Wimbledon are 16th on 13 points, closer to the play-off places than the bottom. Both had seven days' rest, so freshness is equal.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe prices look broadly right, though the over may be slightly generous.
But Stockport's games go over 2.5 only 50% of the time and both teams score just 49%, so 65% for three or more goals looks a touch high.
Stockport: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Stockport County are clear favourites at 78%, with AFC Wimbledon on 8% and the draw on 14%. Stockport County are 2nd and AFC Wimbledon 16th in the League One. In their last five league games, Stockport County won four and AFC Wimbledon none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Stockport County win or draw
- 92%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 86%
- AFC Wimbledon win or draw
- 23%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 65%
- 4+ goals
- 43%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 49%
- No
- 51%
We expect about 2.6 goals from Stockport County and 0.7 from AFC Wimbledon. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 3–0 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 3–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65% | 21% | 14% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1844 | |
| 2 | 77% | 14% | 8% | Prices moved | #2116 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Stockport County: last 6
DWWWWW · 10 scored, 2 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Notts County | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Oct | at Doncaster | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Bromley | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Barnsley | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Oct | at Shrewsbury EFL Trophy | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Peterborough | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWLW
AFC Wimbledon: last 6
DLLLDD · 3 scored, 12 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Wycombe | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Oct | vs Mansfield Town | 0–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Sheffield Wednesday | 0–5 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Plymouth | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Oct | vs Barnet EFL Trophy | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Cambridge United | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: LLDWL
Season stats
| Stockport County | AFC Wimbledon | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | Goals scored per game | 0.67 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.58 |
| 2.33 | Scored per game at home | 0.50 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game away | 0.83 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 33% |
| 42% | Clean sheets | 42% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 42% |
| 1.08 | Yellow cards per game | 1.58 |
League matches only, 12 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Stockport County | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League One table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 12 | +13 | 25 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Stockport County | 12 | +12 | 23 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Bradford | 12 | +5 | 22 | DDWDD |
| 4 | Plymouth | 13 | +2 | 22 | WLLWW |
| 5 | Reading | 12 | +12 | 21 | WWLWD |
| … | |||||
| 13 | Leicester | 11 | +0 | 15 | LWWLD |
| 14 | Wycombe | 12 | -4 | 15 | DDWLD |
| 15 | Leyton Orient | 12 | +2 | 14 | LLWDL |
| 16 | AFC Wimbledon | 12 | -11 | 13 | DLLLD |
| 17 | Doncaster | 11 | -1 | 12 | WLLWW |
| 18 | Milton Keynes Dons | 11 | -6 | 12 | WLWLD |
| 19 | Notts County | 11 | -3 | 11 | DWLLL |
Match context
- Stadium
- Edgeley Park, Stockport, Greater Manchester
- 10,852 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Stockport County 7AFC Wimbledon 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Stockport County 2 · AFC Wimbledon 2
- Coaches
- J. McNulty
- Stockport County, since Aug 2026
- J. Jackson
- AFC Wimbledon, since May 2022
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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