Leicester City vs Stevenage prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Leicester to win: 55%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 54% · bookies 54%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings land close to the published numbers, with only mild doubt about the size of Leicester's home edge given Stevenage's solid away record and earlier win over them. The consensus sits near 55% home, 24% draw, 21% away, with the over 2.5 line at 54% backed by Leicester's 64% over rate and both-teams-score at 54%.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Stevenage's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Stevenage favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersLeicester's leaky home defence meets Stevenage's late-scoring habit
Leicester concede 1.55 per game and have let in 9 in their last 5 at home, while Stevenage score 5 of their goals in the final 15 minutes and concede none before the 16th minute. Both teams score in 64% of Leicester's games, so goals at both ends look likely.
Leicester: slightly overrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMid-table pair, but Leicester's home form gives them an edge
Both sides sit on 15 points from 11 games, Leicester 13th and Stevenage 12th, well clear of the Relegation places at 21-24 and far from the Play-offs at 3-6. Leicester have won 3 of their last 5 at home and both teams had 7 days' rest, so freshness is equal.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongStevenage's away record argues the home lean is too strong
Stevenage beat Leicester 2-1 in the EFL Trophy this season and have taken 11 points from their last 5 away (W2 D1 L2), conceding just 5.
Stevenage: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Leicester City are favourites at 55%, with Stevenage on 21% and the draw on 24%. Leicester City are 13th and Stevenage 12th in the League One. In their last five league games, Leicester City won two and Stevenage two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Leicester City win or draw
- 79%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Stevenage win or draw
- 45%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 54%
- 4+ goals
- 31%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Leicester City and 1.0 from Stevenage. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 0–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% | 25% | 38% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1842 | |
| 2 | 55% | 24% | 21% | Prices moved | #2112 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Leicester City: last 6
LWWLLW · 15 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Luton | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Oct | at Bromley | 4–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Doncaster | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Peterborough | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Oct | at Stevenage EFL Trophy | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Sep | vs Fulham U21 EFL Trophy | 6–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLWLW
Stevenage: last 6
LWLWWW · 12 scored, 5 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Milton Keynes Dons | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Oct | vs Plymouth | 3–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Bradford | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Wigan | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | vs Leicester EFL Trophy | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Sep | at Walsall EFL Trophy | 6–1 | W |
Last 5 away: LWLWD
Season stats
| Leicester City | Stevenage | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.55 | Goals scored per game | 1.36 |
| 1.55 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.83 | Scored per game away | 1.20 |
| 64% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| 64% | Both teams scored | 45% |
| 27% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 18% | Failed to score | 36% |
| 1.73 | Yellow cards per game | 1.64 |
League matches only, 11 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Leicester City | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League One table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mansfield Town | 11 | +4 | 18 | WWDWD |
| 10 | Luton | 11 | +2 | 17 | WWLWL |
| 11 | Burton Albion | 13 | -1 | 17 | WDDLL |
| 12 | Stevenage | 11 | +4 | 15 | LWLWL |
| 13 | Leicester City | 11 | +0 | 15 | LWWLD |
| 14 | Wycombe | 12 | -4 | 15 | DDWLD |
| 15 | Leyton Orient | 12 | +2 | 14 | LLWDL |
| 16 | AFC Wimbledon | 12 | -11 | 13 | DLLLD |
Match context
- Stadium
- King Power Stadium, Leicester, Leicestershire
- 34,310 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Leicester City 7Stevenage 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Leicester City 2 · Stevenage 2
- Coaches
- Russell Martin
- Leicester City, since Jul 2026
- A. Revell
- Stevenage, since Aug 2020
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
