League One predicted table 2026-27
Chances for every team to finish in each zone, from 10,000 simulations of the 449 remaining matches. Updated 17 Oct 2026, 08:57 UTC.
In short
- Reading are favourites for the title at 24%, ahead of Oxford United (17%).
- Most likely to win automatic promotion: Reading (42%) and Oxford United (31%).
- 4 teams have a relegation chance above 50%: Wigan Athletic, Bromley, Milton Keynes Dons and Peterborough United.
Predicted final table
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | Exp. pts | Title | Automatic promotion | Play-offs | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth Argyle | 10 | 19 | 76 | 9% | 19% | 42% | <1% |
| 2 | Bradford City | 9 | 17 | 75 | 6% | 14% | 39% | <1% |
| 3 | Stockport County | 9 | 16 | 77 | 13% | 26% | 43% | <1% |
| 4 | Huddersfield Town | 9 | 16 | 77 | 11% | 22% | 43% | <1% |
| 5 | Cambridge United | 9 | 16 | 72 | 3% | 8% | 31% | <1% |
| 6 | Reading | 9 | 15 | 81 | 24% | 42% | 40% | <1% |
| 7 | Oxford United | 8 | 15 | 79 | 17% | 31% | 43% | <1% |
| 8 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | 15 | 77 | 13% | 25% | 43% | <1% |
| 9 | Stevenage | 8 | 12 | 69 | 2% | 5% | 23% | <1% |
| 10 | Burton Albion | 10 | 12 | 61 | <1% | <1% | 5% | 6% |
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 9 | 12 | 61 | <1% | <1% | 5% | 5% |
| 12 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 12 | 57 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 12% |
| 13 | Leyton Orient | 9 | 11 | 64 | <1% | 1% | 9% | 3% |
| 14 | Luton Town | 8 | 11 | 68 | 1% | 4% | 21% | 1% |
| 15 | Wycombe Wanderers | 9 | 10 | 55 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 20% |
| 16 | Doncaster Rovers | 8 | 9 | 59 | <1% | <1% | 3% | 8% |
| 17 | Leicester City | 8 | 9 | 55 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 21% |
| 18 | Blackpool | 8 | 8 | 58 | <1% | <1% | 3% | 11% |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | 8 | 49 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 49% |
| 20 | Peterborough United | 9 | 8 | 49 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 50% |
| 21 | Bromley | 8 | 8 | 45 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 71% |
| 22 | Notts County | 8 | 7 | 57 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 14% |
| 23 | Milton Keynes Dons | 8 | 6 | 48 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 53% |
| 24 | Wigan Athletic | 8 | 4 | 43 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 76% |
Zones: Title = 1st; Automatic promotion = 1–2; Play-offs = 3–6; Relegation = 21–24. Bold = more likely than not. 0% and 100% appear only when the outcome is already mathematically settled.
How this table is made
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season's results, adjusted for home advantage and pulled towards the league average while the sample is small. We then play every remaining match 10,000 times with goals drawn from those ratings, and count how often each team ends up in each zone. Current points come from the official table, so any points deductions are included. Ties are broken on goal difference, then goals scored.
It uses no bookmaker prices, news or AI: it is a pure model of the results so far. Early in the season it reacts strongly to a few big wins, so treat the extremes with care. The table updates after every round. Methodology