Mansfield Town vs Notts County prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Mansfield to win: 54%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings centre on a Mansfield win: the coach points to scoring patterns, the dressing room to the league gap, and the sceptic finds the published 54% broadly fair. On goals, two lean over 2.5 and one sits near the line, matching the published 53%.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 2 think Mansfield Town's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersHome scoring patterns point towards goals and a Mansfield edge
Mansfield score 2.00 per game at home and hit 8 of their 20 goals in the 16-30 minute spell; Notts County mostly score late, with 5 of their 11 after the 76th. County have kept just 9% clean sheets and Mansfield 18%, and both sides see both teams score in 64% of their games.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMansfield's stronger league position sets the tone
Mansfield sit 9th with 18 points; Notts County are 19th on 11, closer to trouble than the play-offs. Mansfield have taken four league wins in six, while County have just two league wins all season. Equal rest of 7 days each means form and position, not fatigue, should decide this.
Mansfield: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Mansfield Town are favourites at 54%, with Notts County on 22% and the draw on 24%. Mansfield Town are 9th and Notts County 19th in the League One. In their last five league games, Mansfield Town won three and Notts County one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Mansfield Town win or draw
- 78%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Notts County win or draw
- 46%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 53%
- 4+ goals
- 31%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Mansfield Town and 1.0 from Notts County. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 0–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% | 24% | 28% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1839 | |
| 2 | 54% | 24% | 22% | Prices moved | #2109 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Mansfield Town: last 6
WWDWLD · 12 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Blackpool | 4–1 | W |
| 20 Oct | at AFC Wimbledon | 3–0 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Oxford United | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Bromley | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Oct | at Port Vale EFL Trophy | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Burton Albion | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: DWDWL
Notts County: last 6
DWLWLW · 11 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Stockport County | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Oct | vs Sheffield Wednesday | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Wycombe | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Nottingham Forest U21 EFL Trophy | 5–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Oxford United | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Sep | vs Grimsby EFL Trophy | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: LLDDD
Season stats
| Mansfield Town | Notts County | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.82 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 1.45 | Goals conceded per game | 1.27 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.17 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game away | 0.80 |
| 73% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 27% |
| 64% | Both teams scored | 64% |
| 18% | Clean sheets | 9% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 27% |
| 2.09 | Yellow cards per game | 2.73 |
League matches only, 11 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Mansfield Town | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League One table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cambridge United | 12 | +3 | 20 | LDWWD |
| 7 | Oxford United | 10 | +8 | 19 | DWDWD |
| 8 | Sheffield Wednesday | 11 | +8 | 18 | LLWDD |
| 9 | Mansfield Town | 11 | +4 | 18 | WWDWD |
| 10 | Luton | 11 | +2 | 17 | WWLWL |
| 11 | Burton Albion | 13 | -1 | 17 | WDDLL |
| 12 | Stevenage | 11 | +4 | 15 | LWLWL |
| … | |||||
| 16 | AFC Wimbledon | 12 | -11 | 13 | DLLLD |
| 17 | Doncaster | 11 | -1 | 12 | WLLWW |
| 18 | Milton Keynes Dons | 11 | -6 | 12 | WLWLD |
| 19 | Notts County | 11 | -3 | 11 | DWLLL |
| 20 | Blackpool | 11 | -4 | 11 | LWLLL |
| 21 | Peterborough | 12 | -10 | 10 | DLDWL |
| 22 | Bromley | 11 | -16 | 9 | DLLLW |
Match context
- Stadium
- One Call Stadium, Mansfield, Nottinghamshire
- 9,186 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Mansfield Town 7Notts County 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Mansfield Town 2 · Notts County 2
- Coaches
- N. Clough
- Mansfield Town, since Nov 2020
- M. Paterson
- Notts County, since Jul 2025
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
