Waalwijk vs Almere City FC prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Waalwijk to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 68% · bookies 68%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three cards point the same way: Waalwijk's home strength against Almere's excellent away record makes the 44-24-32 spread fair, and the attacking profiles push goals. The 68% over 2.5 line looks right, with both teams scoring at 68% also credible. A close, high-scoring contest is the sensible read.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Almere City FC's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Almere City FC favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo attack-minded sides with leaky hosts point to goals from both teams.
With both attacks in form, goals look likely.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFourth versus eleventh, but both arrive on equal rest and Waalwijk's draw-heavy run keeps this tight.
Almere sit 4th on 22 points from 12 games (W7 D1 L4); Waalwijk are 11th on 16 (W3 D7 L2) - only six points apart. Waalwijk have drawn four of their last six and seven overall, so sharing points is in their nature.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPrices look fair, but Almere's away record argues their 32% is slightly generous to Waalwijk.
The 44/24/32 spread and the 68% over 2.5 line broadly match the season record. My one nudge: Almere score 2.50 per game away with a 3-2 away run (14 scored, 6 conceded), while Waalwijk's xG split is only 1.9 v 1.6. I'd trim Waalwijk to 42% and shade the over down a touch.
Almere: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Waalwijk are slight favourites at 44%, with Almere City FC on 32% and the draw on 24%. Waalwijk are 11th and Almere City FC 4th in the Eerste Divisie. In their last five league games, Waalwijk won none and Almere City FC two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Waalwijk win or draw
- 68%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Almere City FC win or draw
- 56%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 86%
- 3+ goals
- 67%
- 4+ goals
- 46%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 68%
- No
- 32%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Waalwijk and 1.6 from Almere City FC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (7%), 2–2 (7%), 1–0 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% | 24% | 32% | Stats preview | #1788 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Waalwijk: last 6
DDLDLW · 9 scored, 9 conceded
| 23 Oct | at De Graafschap | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs FC Volendam | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Heracles | 0–3 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Emmen | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Roda | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs MVV | 6–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: DDWWD
Almere City FC: last 6
LLWWLW · 10 scored, 8 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Roda | 2–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Emmen | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs FC Eindhoven | 3–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs FC Volendam | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Sep | at Dordrecht | 2–3 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs Heracles | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LLWWW
Season stats
| Waalwijk | Almere City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.75 | Goals scored per game | 2.08 |
| 1.42 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 2.67 | Scored per game at home | 1.67 |
| 0.83 | Scored per game away | 2.50 |
| 42% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| 75% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 8% | Clean sheets | 42% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 8% |
League matches only, 12 games each.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 12 | +23 | 29 | DWWDW |
| 2 | VVV Venlo | 12 | +14 | 25 | WDWWL |
| 3 | Emmen | 12 | +7 | 25 | WWWDW |
| 4 | Almere City FC | 12 | +13 | 22 | LLWWL |
| 5 | Roda | 12 | +4 | 22 | WWDLW |
| 6 | NAC Breda | 12 | +3 | 21 | DWWDW |
| 7 | FC Volendam | 12 | +9 | 19 | WDWLW |
| 8 | Jong AZ | 12 | +5 | 17 | WDLWD |
| 9 | Vitesse | 12 | -1 | 17 | LWLDL |
| 10 | MVV | 12 | -11 | 17 | DLLLW |
| 11 | Waalwijk | 12 | +4 | 16 | DDLDL |
| 12 | Jong PSV U21 | 12 | -2 | 16 | WLDLD |
| 13 | Den Bosch | 12 | -3 | 15 | DWWDL |
| 14 | FC OSS | 12 | -1 | 13 | DLWWL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Waalwijk 7Almere City FC 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Waalwijk 2 · Almere City FC 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 9°C · wind 9 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Eerste Divisie average: 3.59 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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