Jong FC Utrecht vs FC Dordrecht prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Jong Utrecht to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 65% · bookies 65%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
Net reading: a tight, open match, home edge marginal.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think FC Dordrecht's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences point to goals, with Utrecht's home scoring keeping them just ahead
Both sides concede 2.58 per game and neither keeps many clean sheets.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureUtrecht sit 20th on 7 points from 12 games, below Dordrecht's 18th place on 11, so both badly need a win. Utrecht have lost five straight, though, and have 10 days' rest versus Dordrecht's 9. Home form of L L W D L offers little comfort either way.
Jong Utrecht: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongDordrecht have won two of their last six and beat Jong PSV away. Utrecht's 92% over-2.5 rate supports the 65% over line, though Dordrecht's 75% tempers it.
Dordrecht: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Jong FC Utrecht are slight favourites at 40%, with FC Dordrecht on 35% and the draw on 25%. Jong FC Utrecht are 20th and FC Dordrecht 18th in the Eerste Divisie. In their last five league games, Jong FC Utrecht won one and FC Dordrecht two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Jong FC Utrecht win or draw
- 66%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- FC Dordrecht win or draw
- 60%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 84%
- 3+ goals
- 64%
- 4+ goals
- 42%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 66%
- No
- 34%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Jong FC Utrecht and 1.6 from FC Dordrecht. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 2–2 (7%), 1–0 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% | 19% | 29% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1802 | |
| 2 | 40% | 25% | 34% | Prices moved | #2179 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Jong FC Utrecht: last 6
LLLLWW · 14 scored, 16 conceded
| 23 Oct | at FC Volendam | 2–6 | L |
| 19 Oct | vs Roda | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Oct | at De Graafschap | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs VVV Venlo | 1–3 | L |
| 14 Sep | vs Jong Ajax | 6–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | at NAC Breda | 3–2 | W |
Last 5 at home: LLWDL
FC Dordrecht: last 6
LWLDWL · 7 scored, 13 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs VVV Venlo | 2–4 | L |
| 19 Oct | at Jong PSV U21 | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Emmen | 0–3 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Den Bosch | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Sep | vs Almere City FC | 3–2 | W |
| 18 Sep | at FC OSS | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 away: WDLLL
Season stats
| Jong FC Utrecht | FC Dordrecht | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.58 | Goals scored per game | 1.33 |
| 2.58 | Goals conceded per game | 2.58 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game at home | 1.67 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 92% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| 92% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 8% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 8% | Failed to score | 25% |
League matches only, 12 games each.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 12 | -11 | 12 | DWLDL |
| 16 | De Graafschap | 12 | -11 | 12 | DLWDW |
| 17 | FC Eindhoven | 12 | -9 | 11 | LLLDL |
| 18 | FC Dordrecht | 12 | -15 | 11 | LWLDW |
| 19 | Helmond Sport | 12 | -6 | 9 | LLLDL |
| 20 | Jong FC Utrecht | 12 | -12 | 7 | LLLLW |
Match context
- Travel for FC Dordrecht
- 43 km
- Rest days
- Jong FC Utrecht 10FC Dordrecht 9
- Matches in the last 14 days: Jong FC Utrecht 1 · FC Dordrecht 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 9°C · wind 7 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Eerste Divisie average: 3.59 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
