FC Volendam vs De Graafschap prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Volendam to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 75% · bookies 75%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings agree Volendam deserve favouritism, backed by five straight home wins and a 9-point gap over De Graafschap, whose away record is poor. The 75% over 2.5 line is consistent with Volendam's 3.67 home goals per game and De Graafschap's 83% both-teams-score rate, so the published numbers look about right.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think FC Volendam's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences and Volendam's home scoring point to goals
Volendam average 3.67 goals scored per home game and have five straight home wins, conceding just 5 in that run.
Volendam: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureVolendam's home run and higher table place make them clear favourites
Volendam sit 7th on 19 points from 12 games, 9 points clear of 16th-placed De Graafschap, and have won all five recent home games. De Graafschap have one win in their last six and just one away win in five. Both had 7 days' rest, so freshness is equal.
Volendam: clearly underrated
Med The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPrices look broadly fair, though the away side's scoring keeps BTTS high
De Graafschap score in most games (failed to score just 8%) and 75% of their matches go over 2.5, so the 75% over line looks right, maybe a touch low.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
FC Volendam are favourites at 47%, with De Graafschap on 30% and the draw on 23%. FC Volendam are 7th and De Graafschap 16th in the Eerste Divisie. In their last five league games, FC Volendam won three and De Graafschap two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- FC Volendam win or draw
- 70%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- De Graafschap win or draw
- 53%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 90%
- 3+ goals
- 75%
- 4+ goals
- 55%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 73%
- No
- 27%
We expect about 2.2 goals from FC Volendam and 1.7 from De Graafschap. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (8%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (8%), 2–2 (7%), 1–2 (7%), 3–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% | 23% | 30% | Stats preview | #1813 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
FC Volendam: last 6
WDWLWL · 13 scored, 10 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Jong Utrecht | 6–2 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Waalwijk | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Oct | vs Vitesse | 2–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Almere City FC | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs VVV Venlo | 3–2 | W |
| 18 Sep | at Jong AZ | 1–4 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWWWW
De Graafschap: last 6
DLWDWL · 8 scored, 8 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Waalwijk | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Oct | at Jong Ajax | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Jong Utrecht | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | at FC Eindhoven | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Den Bosch | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs NAC Breda | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LDWLL
Season stats
| FC Volendam | De Graafschap | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.42 | Goals scored per game | 1.25 |
| 1.67 | Goals conceded per game | 2.17 |
| 3.67 | Scored per game at home | 1.33 |
| 1.17 | Scored per game away | 1.17 |
| 58% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| 58% | Both teams scored | 83% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 8% |
League matches only, 12 games each.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Almere City FC | 12 | +13 | 22 | LLWWL |
| 5 | Roda | 12 | +4 | 22 | WWDLW |
| 6 | NAC Breda | 12 | +3 | 21 | DWWDW |
| 7 | FC Volendam | 12 | +9 | 19 | WDWLW |
| 8 | Jong AZ | 12 | +5 | 17 | WDLWD |
| 9 | Vitesse | 12 | -1 | 17 | LWLDL |
| 10 | MVV | 12 | -11 | 17 | DLLLW |
| … | |||||
| 13 | Den Bosch | 12 | -3 | 15 | DWWDL |
| 14 | FC OSS | 12 | -1 | 13 | DLWWL |
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 12 | -11 | 12 | DWLDL |
| 16 | De Graafschap | 12 | -11 | 12 | DLWDW |
| 17 | FC Eindhoven | 12 | -9 | 11 | LLLDL |
| 18 | Dordrecht | 12 | -15 | 11 | LWLDW |
| 19 | Helmond Sport | 12 | -6 | 9 | LLLDL |
Match context
- Travel for De Graafschap
- 101 km
- Rest days
- FC Volendam 7De Graafschap 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: FC Volendam 2 · De Graafschap 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 13 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Eerste Divisie average: 3.59 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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