Emmen vs Den Bosch prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Emmen to win: 52%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 72% · bookies 72%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings point the same way: Emmen's home strength and Den Bosch's poor away record support the published 52% home win, with the sceptic even keener on the hosts. The goals market at 72% for over 2.5 looks fair given both sides' scoring and conceding rates.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Emmen's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersEmmen's home scoring meets a Den Bosch defence that rarely keeps clean sheets
Both teams score in 75% of Den Bosch games, pointing to chances at both ends.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThird-placed Emmen should press home their advantage against a side stuck in mid-table
Emmen sit 3rd on 25 points from 12 games, winning five of their last six, while Den Bosch are 13th on 15 points. Emmen have two wins from two in their last fortnight with a full week's rest, and Den Bosch arrive on one game in 14 days. The hosts have every reason to push on.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHome win looks fairly priced, but the 72% over 2.5 line may be a shade high
Emmen's 52% home price is supported by six unbeaten and a 2.2 expected goals figure. But Den Bosch have kept only one clean sheet all season yet 75% of their games see both teams score, while Emmen have conceded 19 in 12.
Emmen: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Emmen are favourites at 52%, with Den Bosch on 26% and the draw on 22%. Emmen are 3rd and Den Bosch 13th in the Eerste Divisie. In their last five league games, Emmen won four and Den Bosch two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Emmen win or draw
- 75%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Den Bosch win or draw
- 48%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 89%
- 3+ goals
- 72%
- 4+ goals
- 51%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 69%
- No
- 31%
We expect about 2.2 goals from Emmen and 1.5 from Den Bosch. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (8%), 2–2 (7%), 3–1 (7%), 1–2 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% | 22% | 25% | Stats preview | #1810 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Emmen: last 6
WWWDWL · 10 scored, 5 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Vitesse | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Almere City FC | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | at Dordrecht | 3–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Waalwijk | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs FC OSS | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | at FC Eindhoven | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWLWW
Den Bosch: last 6
DWWDLW · 8 scored, 6 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs MVV | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Oct | vs FC OSS | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | at Jong AZ | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Dordrecht | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | at De Graafschap | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs Helmond Sport | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: WLLLL
Season stats
| Emmen | Den Bosch | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.17 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 1.58 | Goals conceded per game | 1.75 |
| 2.17 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 2.17 | Scored per game away | 0.80 |
| 67% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| 58% | Both teams scored | 75% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 8% | Failed to score | 17% |
League matches only, 12 games each.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 12 | +23 | 29 | DWWDW |
| 2 | VVV Venlo | 12 | +14 | 25 | WDWWL |
| 3 | Emmen | 12 | +7 | 25 | WWWDW |
| 4 | Almere City FC | 12 | +13 | 22 | LLWWL |
| 5 | Roda | 12 | +4 | 22 | WWDLW |
| 6 | NAC Breda | 12 | +3 | 21 | DWWDW |
| … | |||||
| 10 | MVV | 12 | -11 | 17 | DLLLW |
| 11 | Waalwijk | 12 | +4 | 16 | DDLDL |
| 12 | Jong PSV U21 | 12 | -2 | 16 | WLDLD |
| 13 | Den Bosch | 12 | -3 | 15 | DWWDL |
| 14 | FC OSS | 12 | -1 | 13 | DLWWL |
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 12 | -11 | 12 | DWLDL |
| 16 | De Graafschap | 12 | -11 | 12 | DLWDW |
Match context
- Travel for Den Bosch
- 162 km
- Rest days
- Emmen 7Den Bosch 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Emmen 2 · Den Bosch 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 7 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Eerste Divisie average: 3.59 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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