Heracles Almelo vs FC OSS prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Heracles Almelo to win: 84%, about 4 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 77% · bookies 77%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings point the same way: a dominant home side with five straight home wins and 3.20 goals a game at home, against a visitor winless in five away games scoring 0.50 a game on the road. The published 84% home probability looks well supported, and the 77% over 2.5 line is broadly fair, with the sceptic seeing only mild downside on goals.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersHeracles' home scoring machine meets OSS's leaky away defence - goals look likely.
Heracles score 3.20 a game at home with five straight home wins, 16 scored and 4 conceded. Both teams score in 67% of each side's matches.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTop against 14th with both sides fresh - the table gap should tell.
Heracles lead the table on 29 points from 12 games (W9 D2 L1); OSS sit 14th on 13 (W4 D1 L7).
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe home price looks right, but OSS's away scoring slump may make the totals line slightly rich.
Heracles' 3-0 and 2-0 home-style wins suggest one-sided scorelines are live. Over 2.5 at 77% looks about fair given Heracles' 75% rate.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Heracles Almelo are clear favourites at 84%, with FC OSS on 7% and the draw on 9%. Heracles Almelo are 1st and FC OSS 14th in the Eerste Divisie. In their last five league games, Heracles Almelo won three and FC OSS two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Heracles Almelo win or draw
- 94%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 91%
- FC OSS win or draw
- 16%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 91%
- 3+ goals
- 77%
- 4+ goals
- 57%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 3.2 goals from Heracles Almelo and 0.8 from FC OSS. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 3–0 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–0 (9%), 4–0 (8%), 3–1 (8%), 2–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 72% | 15% | 13% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1953 | |
| 2 | 84% | 9% | 6% | Prices moved | #2204 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Heracles Almelo: last 6
DWWDWL · 13 scored, 5 conceded
| 23 Oct | at NAC Breda | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | at MVV | 5–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Waalwijk | 3–0 | W |
| 2 Oct | at Helmond Sport | 2–2 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Vitesse | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | at Almere City FC | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWWWW
FC OSS: last 6
DLWWLW · 14 scored, 8 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Jong Ajax | 3–3 | D |
| 16 Oct | at Den Bosch | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Helmond Sport | 3–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs MVV | 4–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Emmen | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs Dordrecht | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LLLLL
Season stats
| Heracles Almelo | FC OSS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.08 | Goals scored per game | 1.58 |
| 1.17 | Goals conceded per game | 1.67 |
| 3.20 | Scored per game at home | 2.67 |
| 3.00 | Scored per game away | 0.50 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 83% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 8% | Failed to score | 25% |
League matches only, 12 games each.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles Almelo | 12 | +23 | 29 | DWWDW |
| 2 | VVV Venlo | 12 | +14 | 25 | WDWWL |
| 3 | Emmen | 12 | +7 | 25 | WWWDW |
| 4 | Almere City FC | 12 | +13 | 22 | LLWWL |
| … | |||||
| 11 | Waalwijk | 12 | +4 | 16 | DDLDL |
| 12 | Jong PSV U21 | 12 | -2 | 16 | WLDLD |
| 13 | Den Bosch | 12 | -3 | 15 | DWWDL |
| 14 | FC OSS | 12 | -1 | 13 | DLWWL |
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 12 | -11 | 12 | DWLDL |
| 16 | De Graafschap | 12 | -11 | 12 | DLWDW |
| 17 | FC Eindhoven | 12 | -9 | 11 | LLLDL |
Match context
- Travel for FC OSS
- 102 km
- Rest days
- Heracles Almelo 10FC OSS 10
- Matches in the last 14 days: Heracles Almelo 1 · FC OSS 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 10°C · wind 12 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Eerste Divisie average: 3.59 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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