Jong Ajax vs Vitesse prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Vitesse to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 66%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three readings land close to the published numbers: Vitesse narrowly favoured at 42% against Jong Ajax's 35%, with the draw at 23%. The coach's defensive numbers and the league's 3.59 goals per match support the 66% over 2.5 line, and nobody sees grounds to move far from it.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences point to goals at both ends in Ouder-Amstel
Jong Ajax concede 2.42 per game with clean sheets in just 17% of matches, while Vitesse keep only 8% and fail to score in 42%. Both teams score in 67% of Jong Ajax games, and the competition averages 3.59 goals per match.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureVitesse's steadier season gives them the edge over a struggling host
Vitesse sit 9th on 17 points from 12 games; Jong Ajax are 15th on 12 points. Both have had 10 days' rest with one game in 14. Jong Ajax have lost four of their last six, while Vitesse have won two of their last six.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe published numbers look broadly fair, maybe a shade kind to Vitesse
Vitesse have lost three of their last six and Jong Ajax won their last home league game 2-1. Jong Ajax score 1.50 per game at home, matching Vitesse's 1.33 away, so the 42%-35% away lean looks only slightly generous.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Vitesse are slight favourites at 42%, with Jong Ajax on 35% and the draw on 23%. Jong Ajax are 15th and Vitesse 9th in the Eerste Divisie. In their last five league games, Jong Ajax won one and Vitesse one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Jong Ajax win or draw
- 58%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Vitesse win or draw
- 64%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 66%
- 4+ goals
- 44%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 67%
- No
- 33%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Jong Ajax and 1.8 from Vitesse. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 2–2 (7%), 0–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% | 23% | 42% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2079 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Jong Ajax: last 6
DWLDLL · 6 scored, 15 conceded
| 23 Oct | at FC OSS | 3–3 | D |
| 19 Oct | vs De Graafschap | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs VVV Venlo | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs Roda | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Sep | at Jong Utrecht | 1–6 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Waalwijk | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: WLDLW
Vitesse: last 6
LWLDLW · 6 scored, 9 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Emmen | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Oct | at FC Eindhoven | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | at FC Volendam | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs NAC Breda | 2–2 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Heracles | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Jong PSV U21 | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 away: WLLLW
Season stats
| Jong Ajax | Vitesse | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | Goals scored per game | 1.33 |
| 2.42 | Goals conceded per game | 1.42 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.33 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 67% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 42% |
League matches only, 12 games each.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | NAC Breda | 12 | +3 | 21 | DWWDW |
| 7 | FC Volendam | 12 | +9 | 19 | WDWLW |
| 8 | Jong AZ | 12 | +5 | 17 | WDLWD |
| 9 | Vitesse | 12 | -1 | 17 | LWLDL |
| 10 | MVV | 12 | -11 | 17 | DLLLW |
| 11 | Waalwijk | 12 | +4 | 16 | DDLDL |
| 12 | Jong PSV U21 | 12 | -2 | 16 | WLDLD |
| 13 | Den Bosch | 12 | -3 | 15 | DWWDL |
| 14 | FC OSS | 12 | -1 | 13 | DLWWL |
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 12 | -11 | 12 | DWLDL |
| 16 | De Graafschap | 12 | -11 | 12 | DLWDW |
| 17 | FC Eindhoven | 12 | -9 | 11 | LLLDL |
| 18 | Dordrecht | 12 | -15 | 11 | LWLDW |
Match context
- Rest days
- Jong Ajax 10Vitesse 10
- Matches in the last 14 days: Jong Ajax 1 · Vitesse 1
- Goals in this league
- Eerste Divisie average: 3.59 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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