Roda JC Kerkrade vs Jong AZ prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Roda JC Kerkrade to win: 58%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 67% · bookies 67%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three lean towards a home win near the published 58%, with Roda's solid home record and defensive numbers against Jong AZ's leaky defence. On goals, the Coach and Sceptic both shade under the 67% over 2.5 line, citing Roda's low-scoring profile, while the Dressing Room stays close to the market.
What our AI analysts say
Both analysts broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureRoda's steadier points base at home should edge a mid-table contest
Roda sit 5th on 22 points from 12 games (W6 D4 L2) against Jong AZ 8th on 17 (W5 D2 L5). Both had 7 days' rest, so freshness is equal.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 58% on Roda looks fair, but the goals line may be a touch high
Roda's last six include a 0-2 loss at VVV and two 0-0 or 1-1 draws, and they score only 1.25 per game this season. Jong AZ's 3.17 goals per game away is eye-catching but they concede 2.17 per game and lost at Den Bosch and Heracles recently.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Roda JC Kerkrade are favourites at 58%, with Jong AZ on 21% and the draw on 21%. Roda JC Kerkrade are 5th and Jong AZ 8th in the Eerste Divisie. In their last five league games, Roda JC Kerkrade won three and Jong AZ two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Roda JC Kerkrade win or draw
- 78%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- Jong AZ win or draw
- 42%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 86%
- 3+ goals
- 67%
- 4+ goals
- 45%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 64%
- No
- 36%
We expect about 2.2 goals from Roda JC Kerkrade and 1.3 from Jong AZ. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 1–0 (7%), 3–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% | 21% | 22% | Stats preview | #1787 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Roda JC Kerkrade: last 6
WWDLWD · 8 scored, 6 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Almere City FC | 3–2 | W |
| 19 Oct | at Jong Utrecht | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Jong PSV U21 | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Oct | at VVV Venlo | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Waalwijk | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | at Jong Ajax | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: DWWDW
Jong AZ: last 6
WDLWDL · 16 scored, 14 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Helmond Sport | 5–4 | W |
| 16 Oct | at VVV Venlo | 4–4 | D |
| 9 Oct | vs Den Bosch | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs FC Volendam | 4–1 | W |
| 14 Sep | at Jong PSV U21 | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Sep | at Heracles | 2–3 | L |
Last 5 away: DDLWL
Season stats
| Roda JC Kerkrade | Jong AZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.25 | Goals scored per game | 2.58 |
| 0.92 | Goals conceded per game | 2.17 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 3.17 |
| 33% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 83% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 17% |
League matches only, 12 games each.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | VVV Venlo | 12 | +14 | 25 | WDWWL |
| 3 | Emmen | 12 | +7 | 25 | WWWDW |
| 4 | Almere City FC | 12 | +13 | 22 | LLWWL |
| 5 | Roda JC Kerkrade | 12 | +4 | 22 | WWDLW |
| 6 | NAC Breda | 12 | +3 | 21 | DWWDW |
| 7 | FC Volendam | 12 | +9 | 19 | WDWLW |
| 8 | Jong AZ | 12 | +5 | 17 | WDLWD |
| 9 | Vitesse | 12 | -1 | 17 | LWLDL |
| 10 | MVV | 12 | -11 | 17 | DLLLW |
| 11 | Waalwijk | 12 | +4 | 16 | DDLDL |
Match context
- Travel for Jong AZ
- 198 km
- Rest days
- Roda JC Kerkrade 7Jong AZ 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Roda JC Kerkrade 2 · Jong AZ 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 8°C · wind 8 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Eerste Divisie average: 3.59 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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