Jong PSV vs NAC Breda prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
NAC Breda to win: 57%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 72% · bookies 72%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings point the same way: NAC's stronger points tally, away scoring of 2.00 per game and Jong PSV's 8% clean-sheet rate make the visitors clear favourites, with goals at both ends likely. The published 22-21-57 split and 72% over line look broadly right, with only a minor nudge towards the draw.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 2 think a draw is underrated.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe table and recent run both point towards NAC Breda in Eindhoven
NAC sit 6th on 21 points from 12 games; Jong PSV are 12th on 16. Both had 10 days' rest with one game in 14, so freshness is even and the gap in form and points favours the visitors.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe prices look about right, with a small nudge towards the draw
NAC's 57% is fair given they score 2.00 a game away, but Jong PSV have won two of their last five at home and NAC only two of five on the road (W D W L D), so I shade the draw up. Over 2.5 at 72% fits NAC's 67% rate and the league's 3.59 goals per match.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
NAC Breda are favourites at 57%, with Jong PSV on 22% and the draw on 21%. Jong PSV are 12th and NAC Breda 6th in the Eerste Divisie. In their last five league games, Jong PSV won one and NAC Breda three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Jong PSV win or draw
- 43%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- NAC Breda win or draw
- 78%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 89%
- 3+ goals
- 72%
- 4+ goals
- 51%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 68%
- No
- 32%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Jong PSV and 2.3 from NAC Breda. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–2 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (8%), 1–3 (7%), 0–2 (6%), 2–2 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% | 23% | 36% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1954 | |
| 2 | 22% | 21% | 57% | Prices moved | #2205 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Jong PSV: last 6
WLDLDL · 6 scored, 10 conceded
| 23 Oct | at FC Eindhoven | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Oct | vs Dordrecht | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Oct | at Roda | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Vitesse | 1–3 | L |
| 14 Sep | vs Jong AZ | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Sep | at Helmond Sport | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: LDWDW
NAC Breda: last 6
DWWDWW · 12 scored, 6 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Heracles | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Oct | at Helmond Sport | 2–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs MVV | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Vitesse | 2–2 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs FC Eindhoven | 4–2 | W |
| 20 Sep | at De Graafschap | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: WDWLD
Season stats
| Jong PSV | NAC Breda | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.42 | Goals scored per game | 1.92 |
| 1.58 | Goals conceded per game | 1.67 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.83 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 58% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| 83% | Both teams scored | 75% |
| 8% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 8% | Failed to score | 8% |
League matches only, 12 games each.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Emmen | 12 | +7 | 25 | WWWDW |
| 4 | Almere City FC | 12 | +13 | 22 | LLWWL |
| 5 | Roda | 12 | +4 | 22 | WWDLW |
| 6 | NAC Breda | 12 | +3 | 21 | DWWDW |
| 7 | FC Volendam | 12 | +9 | 19 | WDWLW |
| 8 | Jong AZ | 12 | +5 | 17 | WDLWD |
| 9 | Vitesse | 12 | -1 | 17 | LWLDL |
| 10 | MVV | 12 | -11 | 17 | DLLLW |
| 11 | Waalwijk | 12 | +4 | 16 | DDLDL |
| 12 | Jong PSV | 12 | -2 | 16 | WLDLD |
| 13 | Den Bosch | 12 | -3 | 15 | DWWDL |
| 14 | FC OSS | 12 | -1 | 13 | DLWWL |
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 12 | -11 | 12 | DWLDL |
Match context
- Travel for NAC Breda
- 51 km
- Rest days
- Jong PSV 10NAC Breda 10
- Matches in the last 14 days: Jong PSV 1 · NAC Breda 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 10°C · wind 9 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Eerste Divisie average: 3.59 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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