MVV Maastricht vs VVV-Venlo prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
VVV-Venlo to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 64% · bookies 64%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
On goals, heavy scoring and conceding on both sides support the 64% over line, with the coach nudging it slightly higher.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think VVV-Venlo's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersVVV's away firepower against a leaky MVV defence points to goals and an away win.
MVV concede 2.25 per game and kept clean sheets in just 17% of matches; VVV score 2.83 per game overall and 2.67 away. That profile favours the visitors and a high-scoring game.
VVV-Venlo: clearly underrated
More goalsMed The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMVV have lost 4 of their last 6, including 1-5 at home to Heracles. Both sides had 7 days' rest, so there is no fixture-load edge; the gap in points and recent run shapes this as an away-leaning game.
VVV-Venlo: clearly underrated
Med The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe published numbers look about right; the draw may be slightly underrated.
The 47% away line matches VVV's away record of W W L W L, though they conceded 10 in those five games, and MVV have won 2 of their last 5 at home. The 64% over line sits comfortably with the season scoring rates. If anything, the 24% draw looks a touch light given MVV's home draws.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
VVV-Venlo are favourites at 47%, with MVV Maastricht on 29% and the draw on 24%. MVV Maastricht are 10th and VVV-Venlo 2nd in the Eerste Divisie. In their last five league games, MVV Maastricht won one and VVV-Venlo three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- MVV Maastricht win or draw
- 53%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- VVV-Venlo win or draw
- 71%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 84%
- 3+ goals
- 64%
- 4+ goals
- 42%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 64%
- No
- 36%
We expect about 1.4 goals from MVV Maastricht and 1.9 from VVV-Venlo. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (7%), 0–1 (7%), 2–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25% | 19% | 56% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1952 | |
| 2 | 29% | 24% | 47% | Prices moved | #2144 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
MVV Maastricht: last 6
DLLLWL · 7 scored, 18 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Den Bosch | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Heracles | 1–5 | L |
| 9 Oct | at NAC Breda | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | at FC OSS | 1–4 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Helmond Sport | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | at Waalwijk | 1–6 | L |
Last 5 at home: LWLDW
VVV-Venlo: last 6
WDWWLW · 18 scored, 10 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Dordrecht | 4–2 | W |
| 16 Oct | vs Jong AZ | 4–4 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Jong Ajax | 3–0 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs Roda | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | at FC Volendam | 2–3 | L |
| 18 Sep | at Jong Utrecht | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 away: WWLWL
Season stats
| MVV Maastricht | VVV-Venlo | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | Goals scored per game | 2.83 |
| 2.25 | Goals conceded per game | 1.67 |
| 1.17 | Scored per game at home | 3.00 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 2.67 |
| 67% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 83% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 12 games each.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 12 | +23 | 29 | DWWDW |
| 2 | VVV-Venlo | 12 | +14 | 25 | WDWWL |
| 3 | Emmen | 12 | +7 | 25 | WWWDW |
| 4 | Almere City FC | 12 | +13 | 22 | LLWWL |
| 5 | Roda | 12 | +4 | 22 | WWDLW |
| … | |||||
| 7 | FC Volendam | 12 | +9 | 19 | WDWLW |
| 8 | Jong AZ | 12 | +5 | 17 | WDLWD |
| 9 | Vitesse | 12 | -1 | 17 | LWLDL |
| 10 | MVV Maastricht | 12 | -11 | 17 | DLLLW |
| 11 | Waalwijk | 12 | +4 | 16 | DDLDL |
| 12 | Jong PSV U21 | 12 | -2 | 16 | WLDLD |
| 13 | Den Bosch | 12 | -3 | 15 | DWWDL |
Match context
- Travel for VVV-Venlo
- 66 km
- Rest days
- MVV Maastricht 7VVV-Venlo 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: MVV Maastricht 2 · VVV-Venlo 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 13°C · wind 11 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Eerste Divisie average: 3.59 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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