Vitesse vs Emmen prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Vitesse to win: 43%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 61% · bookies 61% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
All three readings converge on a close, high-scoring game: the Coach sees both attacks outworking two leaky defences, the Dressing Room notes Emmen's five-point edge in the table, and the Sceptic thinks the away side may be slightly underpriced.
What our AI analysts say
All three think Emmen's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides score freely and defend little - goals look the safest read here.
Vitesse's home games have produced 8 scored and 8 conceded in five. Both teams scored lands at 63% in the numbers, and 3+ goals at 61%.
Emmen: clearly underrated
Med The Dressing Room
the table and pressureEmmen sit 4th with 22 points; Vitesse 7th on 17 - the visitors bring the better season.
Emmen have won 7 of 11 with only one draw, while Vitesse have lost 4 of 11 and sit five points behind. Vitesse's last six show three defeats, though their most recent outing was a 1-0 win at FC Eindhoven. Both had a full week to prepare, so freshness is even.
Emmen: clearly underrated
Med The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongEmmen's away record argues the market may be underpricing them slightly.
Emmen score 2.20 per game away and have won two of their last five on the road, yet are priced at 36%.
Emmen: strongly underrated
High Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Vitesse are slight favourites at 43%, with Emmen on 32% and the draw on 25%. Vitesse are 7th and Emmen 4th in the Eerste Divisie. In their last five league games, Vitesse won two and Emmen three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Vitesse win or draw
- 68%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Emmen win or draw
- 57%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 61%
- 4+ goals
- 39%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 63%
- No
- 37%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Vitesse and 1.4 from Emmen. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 1–0 (7%), 2–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Vitesse: last 6
WLDLWL · 6 scored, 8 conceded
| 16 Oct | at FC Eindhoven | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | at FC Volendam | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs NAC Breda | 2–2 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Heracles | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Jong PSV U21 | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Roda | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: DWWLD
Emmen: last 6
WWDWLL · 9 scored, 7 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Almere City FC | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | at Dordrecht | 3–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Waalwijk | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs FC OSS | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | at FC Eindhoven | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs De Graafschap | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: WDLLW
Season stats
| Vitesse | Emmen | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.45 | Goals scored per game | 2.18 |
| 1.36 | Goals conceded per game | 1.73 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game at home | 2.17 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 2.20 |
| 55% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 73% |
| 55% | Both teams scored | 64% |
| 9% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 36% | Failed to score | 9% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 12 | +23 | 29 | DWWDW |
| 2 | VVV Venlo | 12 | +14 | 25 | WDWWL |
| 3 | Emmen | 12 | +7 | 25 | WWWDW |
| 4 | Almere City FC | 12 | +13 | 22 | LLWWL |
| 5 | Roda | 12 | +4 | 22 | WWDLW |
| 6 | NAC Breda | 12 | +3 | 21 | DWWDW |
| 7 | FC Volendam | 12 | +9 | 19 | WDWLW |
| 8 | Jong AZ | 12 | +5 | 17 | WDLWD |
| 9 | Vitesse | 12 | -1 | 17 | LWLDL |
| 10 | MVV | 12 | -11 | 17 | DLLLW |
| 11 | Waalwijk | 12 | +4 | 16 | DDLDL |
| 12 | Jong PSV U21 | 12 | -2 | 16 | WLDLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Vitesse won 3, Emmen 0, 3 draws; 4.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Apr 2026 | Vitesse | 3–3 | Emmen | Eerste Divisie |
| 30 Sep 2025 | Emmen | 2–4 | Vitesse | Eerste Divisie |
| 10 Feb 2025 | Vitesse | 2–0 | Emmen | Eerste Divisie |
| 16 Sep 2024 | Emmen | 3–3 | Vitesse | Eerste Divisie |
| 4 Feb 2023 | Emmen | 2–2 | Vitesse | Eredivisie |
| 22 Oct 2022 | Vitesse | 2–1 | Emmen | Eredivisie |
Match context
- Rest days
- Vitesse 7Emmen 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Vitesse 1 · Emmen 1
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
