NAC Breda vs Heracles Almelo prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
NAC Breda to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 66% · bookies 66% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
All three see goals: the coach points to two high-scoring attacks, the sceptic notes Heracles' 3.27 goals per game and the 4-1 win here in 2025, and the room adds NAC's five-match unbeaten run. The published numbers (42/25/33) sit within a few points of our readings, with Heracles arguably slightly underpriced at 33%.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Heracles Almelo's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth attacks are flying, so goals look far likelier than a tight tactical stalemate.
Both teams score 67% in the market and NAC keep clean sheets just 18%, so chances should flow at both ends.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureHeracles lead the table but NAC's six-match unbeaten run keeps this competitive.
NAC have 7 days' rest to Heracles' 5, and their home form (W W L W L) suggests they can trouble the leaders.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market's 42% for NAC looks generous against a side this dominant.
Heracles have won 9 of 11, score 3.27 per game and won the last meeting 4-1 at NAC in 2025, yet are priced at only 33%. NAC concede 1.73 per game and lost the reverse fixture 0-1. I lean towards the visitors.
Heracles Almelo: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
NAC Breda are slight favourites at 40%, with Heracles Almelo on 35% and the draw on 25%. NAC Breda are 5th and Heracles Almelo 1st in the Eerste Divisie. In their last five league games, NAC Breda won four and Heracles Almelo three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- NAC Breda win or draw
- 65%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Heracles Almelo win or draw
- 60%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 66%
- 4+ goals
- 44%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 67%
- No
- 33%
We expect about 1.8 goals from NAC Breda and 1.7 from Heracles Almelo. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%), 2–2 (7%), 1–0 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
NAC Breda: last 6
WWDWWL · 13 scored, 8 conceded
| 16 Oct | at Helmond Sport | 2–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs MVV | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Vitesse | 2–2 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs FC Eindhoven | 4–2 | W |
| 20 Sep | at De Graafschap | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs Jong Utrecht | 2–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWLWL
Heracles Almelo: last 6
WWDWLW · 15 scored, 6 conceded
| 18 Oct | at MVV | 5–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Waalwijk | 3–0 | W |
| 2 Oct | at Helmond Sport | 2–2 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Vitesse | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | at Almere City FC | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Jong AZ | 3–2 | W |
Last 5 away: WDLWW
Season stats
| NAC Breda | Heracles Almelo | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | Goals scored per game | 3.27 |
| 1.73 | Goals conceded per game | 1.18 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 3.20 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 3.33 |
| 73% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 82% |
| 73% | Both teams scored | 64% |
| 18% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 9% | Failed to score | 9% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles Almelo | 12 | +23 | 29 | DWWDW |
| 2 | VVV Venlo | 12 | +14 | 25 | WDWWL |
| 3 | Emmen | 12 | +7 | 25 | WWWDW |
| 4 | Almere City FC | 12 | +13 | 22 | LLWWL |
| 5 | Roda | 12 | +4 | 22 | WWDLW |
| 6 | NAC Breda | 12 | +3 | 21 | DWWDW |
| 7 | FC Volendam | 12 | +9 | 19 | WDWLW |
| 8 | Jong AZ | 12 | +5 | 17 | WDLWD |
| 9 | Vitesse | 12 | -1 | 17 | LWLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: NAC Breda won 2, Heracles Almelo 3, 1 draw; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Heracles Almelo | 0–1 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie |
| 29 Oct 2025 | NAC Breda | 1–4 | Heracles Almelo | KNVB Beker |
| 20 Sep 2025 | NAC Breda | 2–1 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie |
| 31 Jan 2025 | NAC Breda | 1–1 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie |
| 2 Nov 2024 | Heracles Almelo | 2–0 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie |
| 12 May 2023 | NAC Breda | 0–3 | Heracles Almelo | Eerste Divisie |
Match context
- Rest days
- NAC Breda 7Heracles Almelo 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: NAC Breda 1 · Heracles Almelo 1
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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