FC Dordrecht vs VVV-Venlo prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Dordrecht 38%)
Goals call3+ goals 62% · bookies 62% · ✓ 6 goals
The Verdict
All three lean towards goals: the coach cites 73% and 82% over-2.5 rates, the sceptic notes 3.3 goals per game in the head-to-head, and the dressing room sees a rested third-placed side against an out-of-form host. The published 66% over line and VVV's slight 40% edge look consistent with the data, with Dordrecht's home record keeping the home case alive.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think VVV-Venlo's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences and two busy attacks point to goals on both sides.
Dordrecht concede 2.45 per game with clean sheets in just 9% of matches, while VVV score 2.73 per game and 2.40 away. Both teams score in 64% of each side's matches, and Dordrecht's home games have seen 13 conceded in five.
VVV-Venlo: clearly underrated
More goalsMed The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThird meets 18th, and the gap in points should shape the afternoon.
VVV sit 3rd with 22 points from 11 games; Dordrecht are 18th on 11 points after six defeats in their last six league games bar the Jong PSV win. The visitors' stronger position favours them.
VVV-Venlo: clearly underrated
More goalsMed The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market leans on the table, but the head-to-head says Dordrecht are live.
VVV are priced at 40% despite Dordrecht winning 4 of the last 6 meetings, including 2-0 and 4-0 here, with no draws. The 66% over-2.5 line looks fair given 3.3 goals per game in the head-to-head.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
FC Dordrecht are slight favourites at 38%, with VVV-Venlo on 37% and the draw on 25%. FC Dordrecht are 18th and VVV-Venlo 4th in the Eerste Divisie. In their last five league games, FC Dordrecht won two and VVV-Venlo three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- FC Dordrecht win or draw
- 63%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- VVV-Venlo win or draw
- 62%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 62%
- 4+ goals
- 40%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 64%
- No
- 36%
We expect about 1.6 goals from FC Dordrecht and 1.6 from VVV-Venlo. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%), 2–2 (7%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
FC Dordrecht: last 6
WLDWLL · 6 scored, 11 conceded
| 19 Oct | at Jong PSV U21 | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Emmen | 0–3 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Den Bosch | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Sep | vs Almere City FC | 3–2 | W |
| 18 Sep | at FC OSS | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Sep | at FC Eindhoven | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: LWLLW
VVV-Venlo: last 6
DWWLWW · 17 scored, 9 conceded
| 16 Oct | vs Jong AZ | 4–4 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Jong Ajax | 3–0 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs Roda | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | at FC Volendam | 2–3 | L |
| 18 Sep | at Jong Utrecht | 3–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs FC OSS | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 away: WLWLW
Season stats
| FC Dordrecht | VVV-Venlo | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.27 | Goals scored per game | 2.73 |
| 2.45 | Goals conceded per game | 1.64 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game at home | 3.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 2.40 |
| 73% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 82% |
| 64% | Both teams scored | 64% |
| 9% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 12 | +23 | 29 | DWWDW |
| 2 | VVV-Venlo | 12 | +14 | 25 | WDWWL |
| 3 | Emmen | 12 | +7 | 25 | WWWDW |
| 4 | Almere City FC | 12 | +13 | 22 | LLWWL |
| 5 | Roda | 12 | +4 | 22 | WWDLW |
| … | |||||
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 12 | -11 | 12 | DWLDL |
| 16 | De Graafschap | 12 | -11 | 12 | DLWDW |
| 17 | FC Eindhoven | 12 | -9 | 11 | LLLDL |
| 18 | FC Dordrecht | 12 | -15 | 11 | LWLDW |
| 19 | Helmond Sport | 12 | -6 | 9 | LLLDL |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 12 | -12 | 7 | LLLLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: FC Dordrecht won 4, VVV-Venlo 2, 0 draws; 3.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Dec 2025 | VVV-Venlo | 3–1 | FC Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 3 Oct 2025 | FC Dordrecht | 2–0 | VVV-Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| 14 Mar 2025 | FC Dordrecht | 4–0 | VVV-Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| 18 Oct 2024 | VVV-Venlo | 2–3 | FC Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 16 Feb 2024 | FC Dordrecht | 1–0 | VVV-Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| 8 Dec 2023 | VVV-Venlo | 3–1 | FC Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
Match context
- Rest days
- FC Dordrecht 4VVV-Venlo 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: FC Dordrecht 1 · VVV-Venlo 1
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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