Den Bosch vs MVV Maastricht prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Den Bosch to win: 56%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 67% · bookies 67% · ✓ 4 goals
The Verdict
All three lean home: Den Bosch's home scoring (2.00 per game) against an MVV side conceding 2.27 per game and beaten in five of six. The sceptic's note on MVV's 4 wins in 6 head-to-head meetings tempers confidence, so a clear but not overwhelming home lean, with goals at both ends likely, is the consistent reading.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think MVV Maastricht's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make MVV Maastricht favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth defences leak; goals look likely at both ends.
Den Bosch concede 1.73 per game with clean sheets in just 9% of matches, while MVV ship 2.27 per game. Both teams score in 73% of Den Bosch games and 64% of MVV's, and over 2.5 goals lands in 55% and 64% respectively. Den Bosch average 2.00 at home, so an open game looks the natural read.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo mid-table sides, but MVV's collapse makes home form decisive.
Den Bosch sit 12th on 14 points, MVV 9th on 16 - only two points apart. Yet MVV have lost five of their last six, conceding 25 goals in 11 games, and arrive on five days' rest versus Den Bosch's seven. Den Bosch's home run of W D W L W gives them the platform.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHome price looks fair, but MVV's head-to-head record gives pause.
But MVV have won 4 of the last 6 meetings, including 2-1 in 2026 and 5-0 in 2025, and they score more away (1.40) than at home. The 22% away chance may be slightly stingy.
MVV Maastricht: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Den Bosch are favourites at 56%, with MVV Maastricht on 22% and the draw on 22%. Den Bosch are 12th and MVV Maastricht 9th in the Eerste Divisie. In their last five league games, Den Bosch won three and MVV Maastricht one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Den Bosch win or draw
- 78%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- MVV Maastricht win or draw
- 44%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 86%
- 3+ goals
- 67%
- 4+ goals
- 46%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 64%
- No
- 36%
We expect about 2.2 goals from Den Bosch and 1.3 from MVV Maastricht. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (9%), 2–0 (7%), 3–1 (7%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% | 22% | 22% | Stats preview | #590 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Den Bosch: last 6
WWDLWL · 6 scored, 6 conceded
| 16 Oct | vs FC OSS | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | at Jong AZ | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Dordrecht | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | at De Graafschap | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs Helmond Sport | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | at FC Volendam | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: WDWLW
MVV Maastricht: last 6
LLLWLL · 5 scored, 20 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Heracles | 1–5 | L |
| 9 Oct | at NAC Breda | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | at FC OSS | 1–4 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Helmond Sport | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | at Waalwijk | 1–6 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Almere City FC | 0–4 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLWW
Season stats
| Den Bosch | MVV Maastricht | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.45 | Goals scored per game | 1.27 |
| 1.73 | Goals conceded per game | 2.27 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.17 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game away | 1.40 |
| 55% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| 73% | Both teams scored | 64% |
| 9% | Clean sheets | 18% |
| 18% | Failed to score | 18% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FC Volendam | 12 | +9 | 19 | WDWLW |
| 8 | Jong AZ | 12 | +5 | 17 | WDLWD |
| 9 | Vitesse | 12 | -1 | 17 | LWLDL |
| 10 | MVV Maastricht | 12 | -11 | 17 | DLLLW |
| 11 | Waalwijk | 12 | +4 | 16 | DDLDL |
| 12 | Jong PSV U21 | 12 | -2 | 16 | WLDLD |
| 13 | Den Bosch | 12 | -3 | 15 | DWWDL |
| 14 | FC OSS | 12 | -1 | 13 | DLWWL |
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 12 | -11 | 12 | DWLDL |
| 16 | De Graafschap | 12 | -11 | 12 | DLWDW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Den Bosch won 1, MVV Maastricht 4, 1 draw; 3.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan 2026 | Den Bosch | 1–2 | MVV Maastricht | Eerste Divisie |
| 16 Sep 2025 | MVV Maastricht | 2–4 | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
| 18 Jan 2025 | MVV Maastricht | 5–0 | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
| 30 Oct 2024 | MVV Maastricht | 2–1 | Den Bosch | KNVB Beker |
| 23 Aug 2024 | Den Bosch | 1–1 | MVV Maastricht | Eerste Divisie |
| 23 Mar 2024 | MVV Maastricht | 1–0 | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
Match context
- Rest days
- Den Bosch 7MVV Maastricht 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Den Bosch 1 · MVV Maastricht 1
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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