Almere City FC vs Roda JC Kerkrade prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Almere to win: 52%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 58% · bookies 58% · ✓ 5 goals
The Verdict
The consensus points towards Almere City FC having the advantage, supported by their strong home attacking record and league position. However, the historical head-to-head data suggests the game could be highly competitive and open, with goals likely flowing both ways.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Almere City FC's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersAlmere's strong home attack should prove decisive in this fixture.
Almere scores 1.60 per game at home, while Roda averages only 0.67 per game away. Both teams concede 0.82 goals per game in this competition.
Almere: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureAlmere's higher league standing and recent form give them an edge.
Almere City FC sits 2nd in the table with 22 points from 11 games. Roda is 6th with 19 points. Almere has a better recent form run compared to Roda's last 6 matches.
Almere: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market may be underestimating the potential for a high-scoring encounter.
Head-to-head records show 3 wins for Almere and 3 wins for Roda. The last 6 meetings averaged 3.5 goals per game. The season record shows 80% of matches have 2+ goals.
Almere: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Almere City FC are favourites at 52%, with Roda JC Kerkrade on 23% and the draw on 25%. Almere City FC are 2nd and Roda JC Kerkrade 6th in the Eerste Divisie. In their last five league games, Almere City FC won three and Roda JC Kerkrade two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Almere City FC win or draw
- 77%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Roda JC Kerkrade win or draw
- 48%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 58%
- 4+ goals
- 36%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Almere City FC and 1.2 from Roda JC Kerkrade. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 1–2 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% | 25% | 23% | Stats preview | #593 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Almere City FC: last 6
LWWLWW · 12 scored, 5 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Emmen | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs FC Eindhoven | 3–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs FC Volendam | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Sep | at Dordrecht | 2–3 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs Heracles | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | at MVV | 4–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWLW
Roda JC Kerkrade: last 6
WDLWDW · 6 scored, 4 conceded
| 19 Oct | at Jong Utrecht | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Jong PSV U21 | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Oct | at VVV Venlo | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Waalwijk | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | at Jong Ajax | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Vitesse | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WLDDW
Season stats
| Almere City FC | Roda JC Kerkrade | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.09 | Goals scored per game | 1.09 |
| 0.82 | Goals conceded per game | 0.82 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game at home | 1.60 |
| 2.50 | Scored per game away | 0.67 |
| 64% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 27% |
| 45% | Both teams scored | 45% |
| 45% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 9% | Failed to score | 27% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 12 | +23 | 29 | DWWDW |
| 2 | VVV Venlo | 12 | +14 | 25 | WDWWL |
| 3 | Emmen | 12 | +7 | 25 | WWWDW |
| 4 | Almere City FC | 12 | +13 | 22 | LLWWL |
| 5 | Roda JC Kerkrade | 12 | +4 | 22 | WWDLW |
| 6 | NAC Breda | 12 | +3 | 21 | DWWDW |
| 7 | FC Volendam | 12 | +9 | 19 | WDWLW |
| 8 | Jong AZ | 12 | +5 | 17 | WDLWD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Almere City FC won 3, Roda JC Kerkrade 3, 0 draws; 3.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2026 | Almere City FC | 1–2 | Roda JC Kerkrade | Eerste Divisie |
| 20 Oct 2025 | Roda JC Kerkrade | 2–0 | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie |
| 24 Feb 2023 | Roda JC Kerkrade | 0–2 | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie |
| 30 Sep 2022 | Almere City FC | 2–1 | Roda JC Kerkrade | Eerste Divisie |
| 14 Jan 2022 | Almere City FC | 0–4 | Roda JC Kerkrade | Eerste Divisie |
| 27 Aug 2021 | Roda JC Kerkrade | 3–4 | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie |
Match context
- Rest days
- Almere City FC 6Roda JC Kerkrade 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Almere City FC 1 · Roda JC Kerkrade 1
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
