De Graafschap vs Waalwijk prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (De Graafschap 39%)
Goals call3+ goals 69% · bookies 69% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
All three readings land near the published 39-22-39 split: the coach sees goals both ways, the dressing room notes De Graafschap's 17th-place pressure against Waalwijk's draw-heavy record, and the sceptic finds little to argue with. With 2.27 conceded per game by the hosts and 69% for both teams scoring, an open, even contest is the consensus view.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides leak goals, so an open game with chances at both ends looks the likeliest shape.
Both teams scored in 82% and 73% of their league games, and 82% of De Graafschap's matches go over 2.5 goals.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureDe Graafschap's poor home run and lowly position make this a must-do game they cannot treat lightly.
De Graafschap sit 17th with 11 points from 11 games against Waalwijk's 15 in 10th, and have lost three of their last five at home. Waalwijk's six draws show they are hard to beat, and both teams had a light schedule with one game in 14 days.
De Graafschap: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe even prices look fair, though Waalwijk's away scoring record gives pause for thought.
Waalwijk have lost three of their last six and score just 0.80 away per game, yet the numbers give them 39%. Head-to-head backs goals: 3.2 per game across the last six, including a 2-4 and a 1-4 between these sides, matching the 69% for 3+ goals.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
De Graafschap are slight favourites at 39%, with Waalwijk on 39% and the draw on 22%. De Graafschap are 17th and Waalwijk 10th in the Eerste Divisie. In their last five league games, De Graafschap won two and Waalwijk one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- De Graafschap win or draw
- 61%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Waalwijk win or draw
- 61%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 87%
- 3+ goals
- 69%
- 4+ goals
- 48%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 69%
- No
- 31%
We expect about 1.8 goals from De Graafschap and 1.8 from Waalwijk. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%), 2–2 (7%), 1–0 (5%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% | 22% | 39% | Stats preview | #586 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
De Graafschap: last 6
LWDWLW · 9 scored, 8 conceded
| 19 Oct | at Jong Ajax | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Jong Utrecht | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | at FC Eindhoven | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Den Bosch | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs NAC Breda | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sep | at Emmen | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWLLL
Waalwijk: last 6
DLDLWW · 10 scored, 8 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs FC Volendam | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Heracles | 0–3 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Emmen | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Roda | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs MVV | 6–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | at Jong Ajax | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LLWDD
Season stats
| De Graafschap | Waalwijk | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.27 | Goals scored per game | 1.82 |
| 2.27 | Goals conceded per game | 1.45 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game at home | 2.67 |
| 1.17 | Scored per game away | 0.80 |
| 82% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| 82% | Both teams scored | 73% |
| 9% | Clean sheets | 9% |
| 9% | Failed to score | 18% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Jong AZ | 12 | +5 | 17 | WDLWD |
| 9 | Vitesse | 12 | -1 | 17 | LWLDL |
| 10 | MVV | 12 | -11 | 17 | DLLLW |
| 11 | Waalwijk | 12 | +4 | 16 | DDLDL |
| 12 | Jong PSV U21 | 12 | -2 | 16 | WLDLD |
| 13 | Den Bosch | 12 | -3 | 15 | DWWDL |
| 14 | FC OSS | 12 | -1 | 13 | DLWWL |
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 12 | -11 | 12 | DWLDL |
| 16 | De Graafschap | 12 | -11 | 12 | DLWDW |
| 17 | FC Eindhoven | 12 | -9 | 11 | LLLDL |
| 18 | Dordrecht | 12 | -15 | 11 | LWLDW |
| 19 | Helmond Sport | 12 | -6 | 9 | LLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: De Graafschap won 3, Waalwijk 2, 1 draw; 3.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jan 2026 | De Graafschap | 2–4 | Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Waalwijk | 1–4 | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| 30 Mar 2018 | De Graafschap | 1–0 | Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| 2 Sep 2017 | Waalwijk | 0–0 | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| 7 Apr 2017 | De Graafschap | 4–0 | Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| 25 Nov 2016 | Waalwijk | 2–1 | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
Match context
- Rest days
- De Graafschap 4Waalwijk 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: De Graafschap 1 · Waalwijk 1
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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